Author Archives: GW Commodities

No US markets today due to US Memorial Day

 

Rapeseed markets under abnormal pressure from waste biodiesel

FEDIOL, the vegetable oil and protein meal industry, draws attention to acute market developments due to massive increases of imported biodiesel which lead to devastating consequences for the Europe based feedstock up to EU farm level.  Imports of biofuels, classified as waste based are taking place at such scale, that it has led to important disturbances in the EU markets for rapeseed methyl ester, and as a consequence also in the rapeseed and rapeseed oil markets.

Over the last 5 months, prices for rapeseed oil have dropped significantly by over 30 % to 800 €/ton, driving down physical rapeseed prices for spot delivery from 625 €/ton to 410 €/ton over the same period.  Also, futures prices for new rapeseed crop, have declined from about 600 € per ton early January 2023 to levels of about 400 € per ton by mid-May 2023.  This will not only impact rapeseed farmers’ revenue, but also future planting decisions.

Another example of what end users do to fight high prices.

 

As restaurants in China re-open after the rolling back of Covid restrictions, the country’s importing more vegetable oil used for cooking and baking from Russia.

Purchases of Russian edible oil, mostly sunflower and rapeseed oil, made up 25% of total imports by China in the first four months, up from 13% a year earlier.

The combined share of Malaysia and Indonesia, top exporters of palm oil, eased to 53% from 55%.

Matif wheat -2

Canola +-1

Rapeseed -5

Crude -50

CAD +8

Funds were buyers again yesterday on reports of poor Ukrainian export port operations due to Russians not allowing inbound vessels to transit effectively, also that Russian officials were not issuing phyto certs on cargos from last week that had traded below the minimum price that Russia has issued but that was resolved later in the day

 

Wheat futures are mixed to lower.  Recent bounce also linked to talk of drier weather lowering final US, Canada, Australia and Russia 2023 wheat crop and technically, Chic July was oversold.

Interesting that now parts of US HRW may be getting too wet and raising questions about quality.  KC July has had a wild price ride in May from 7.36 to 9.18 back to 8.07 and now testing key resistance near 8.50.  Still a lot on unanswered questions about Ukraine corridor.

 

The path of least resistance remains lower for the grains, with the 2023 crop off to a good start for most, and North American supplies generally ignored in most export markets.

Soybeans in particular are taking it on the chin with China slow to secure new crop North American exports, snapping up as much of Brazil’s record harvest as they can.

Wheat exports have slowed from the Black Sea up into the deal deadline last week and with Russia protesting almost daily, but U.S. export prices are still non competitive on the world market.

Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65k tonnes of Brazilian corn in an international tender this morning for August shipment; the tender was dominated by offers for Brazilian corn, with no offers for U.S. corn reported.

South Korean millers bought 135k tonnes of milling wheat yesterday morning, including 50k each from the U.S. and Australia and 35k from Canada, for Aug-Sept shipment.  U.S. prices ranged from the mid $260’s per tonne (for U.S. soft white wheat) up to around $340/tonne for Australian hard wheat.

Ukraine is accusing Russia of effectively blocking the port of Pivdennyi by refusing to inspect ships bound for that destination; the port, which handles large tonnage vessels and is the largest port included in the Black Sea grain deal, has not received any new ships since May 2.  Russia used to transport ammonia to Pivdennyi via pipeline before the war, and restarting that pipeline was one of Russia’s demands that they say have not yet been met.

Brazilian exporting association Anec estimated May soybean exports at 15.9 MMT, up from 15.76 MMT last week, with corn exports at 387k tonnes, down from 571k previously, and meal at 2.49 MMT vs 2.6 MMT LW.

Private firm Agroconsult yesterday raised their 2022/23 Brazilian safrinha corn crop estimate from 97.2 to 102.4 MMT, ahead of a crop tour of several states; they see plantings steady but record yields up 11% year over year, all despite planting delays in Parana and those late crops remaining at risk.

European Commission data showed cumulative 2022/23 E.U. soft wheat ex-pors at 28.0 MMT, up 13% from last year’s 24.86 MMT pace, with corn im-ports through May 21 at 23.99 MMT, up 63% from last year’s 14.7 MMT.

 

Mpls wheat -5

KC wheat -8

Chic wheat -6

Matif wheat -4

Canola -5

Rapeseed -1

Soybeans +1

Soybean oil -2

Crude +142

Corn +1

CAD-22

Wheat futures are up slightly.  Since May 17, KC July has dropped from 9.18 to 8.45.  This due to increase chances of rains across US southern plains HRW area and the likelihood of more EU wheat imports into US east coast and possibly US Gulf.  This despite fact annual KS wheat tour estimated KS crop at only 178 mil bu and a yield of 30 vs USDA 29 and 45.2 5 year average.

Ukraine export corridor is open but inspection of 62 vessels is very slow.

 

A wet southern Plains and a dry Midwest will cap any rallies into the end of the week

The Dakotas remain the only real problem for spring planting but progress should advance there as well up into early next week

South Korea’s KFA bought 65k tonnes of corn from either South America or South Africa, at just under $249/tonne C&F for Oct 20 arrival.

Chinese customs yesterday reported April corn imports at an even one million tonnes, down 55% from last year, with cumulative Jan-April imports of 8.52 MMT down just over 8% from last year’s pace.

Wheat imports in April came in at 1.68 MMT, up 141% from last year, with Jan-April wheat imports of 6.03 MMT marking a 61% increase from the first four months of 2022.

The International Grains Council yesterday raised their 2023/24 global corn production estimate by 9 MMT, to 1.217 billion tonnes, due to increases in Brazil and China.  That’s above 1.153 bln last year but still below the record 1.223 bln in 2021/22.

World wheat output was down 4 MMT this month to 783 MMT, due to a similarly-sized cut in their U.S. production estimate.

Brazilian oilseed group Abiove raised their 2022/23 soybean production estimate to 153.6 from 155.0 MMT, with exports up from 93.7 to 95.7 MMT.

The Wheat Quality Council Tour estimated Kansas wheat yields at 30.0 bpa at the conclusion of their three day tour, down from a five year average of 45.6 bpa and the lowest since at least 2000, though still above the USDA May estimate of 29.0 bpa.  State output was pegged at 178 million bushels, down from 244 mbu last year and below the initial USDA estimate of 191.4 mbu.

The Buenos Aires Exchange cut their 2022/23 Argentine soybean production estimate from 22.5 to 21.0 MMT, with corn output steady at 36 MMT.

 

Mpls wheat +9

KC wheat +7

Chic wheat +7

Matif wheat +4

Canola +5

Rapeseed -2

Soybeans +8

Soybean oil +68

Crude +111

Corn +3

CAD +17

Wheat futures are higher overnight and settling back to red values prior to the morning break as new starts to surface that Ukraine Grain Deal is set to be extended.  No official confirmation yet.

Chic July following higher KC and Mpls July despite talk of higher US SRW crop and lower export demand.  KC July is higher after annual KC wheat crop tour

 

Corn volume exploded overnight as both old and new crop contracts edged back towards lows, as the USDA sees a massive U.S. crop.  Wheat remains reluctant to re-test recent lows with Russia still threatening.

South Korea’s KFA bought 68k tonnes of corn from either South America or South Africa in a private deal yesterday, at $259/tonne C&F for October.

Importers from the Philippines issued a tender for 40k tonnes of feed wheat for July shipment, with a deadline set for this morning.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry is expecting a record spring wheat planted area of 285,000 hectares (704k acres), with planting progress ahead of last year and most of that area already seeded.  Overall grain planted acreage and production is still seen down sharply year over year due to Russian occupation.

 

The first day of the Wheat Quality Council Tour found northern Kansas HRWW yields averaging 29.8 bushels per acre, the worst average yield on day one since at least 2003, down from 39.5 bpa last year and the 45.4 bpa five year average.  The tour heads to SW KS today.  Separately, state wheat associations estimated Colorado wheat output at 54 mbu, up from 35.8 mbu last year and above the USDA’s May estimate at 49.5 mbu, while Nebraska wheat came in at 30 mbu, up from 26.2 mbu LY but below the 33 mbu USDA

FranceAgriMer cut their 2022/23 (July-June) French soft wheat export (outside the European Union) estimate for the second month in a row, from 10.4 to 10.3 MMT, with exports inside the Union down slightly as well (from 6.43 to 6.39 MMT), and ending stocks up from 2.61 to 2.72 MMT.

Argentina’s Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday estimated 2023/24 wheat production at 18 MMT, up 45% from last season’s 12.4 MMT despite reduced planted acreage estimates for some areas due to continued dryness.

European Commission data yesterday showed cumulative soft wheat exports since July 1 at 27.17 MMT, up 12% from last year’s 24.33 MMT pace; top wheat destinations include Morocco at 4.2 MMT, Algeria at 3.8 MMT, and Nigeria at 2.3 MMT.  E.U. corn imports of 23.57 MMT are up 65% from last season’s 14.26 MMT pace; 56% of that (13.1 MMT) has come from Ukraine, with 34% (7.9 MMT) sourced from Brazil.

Mpls wheat +1

KC wheat +4

Chic wheat -11

Matif wheat -4

Canola +1

Rapeseed -6

Soybeans -12

Soybean oil -32

Crude +93

Corn -13

CAD +10