Wheat futures are up slightly. Since May 17, KC July has dropped from 9.18 to 8.45. This due to increase chances of rains across US southern plains HRW area and the likelihood of more EU wheat imports into US east coast and possibly US Gulf. This despite fact annual KS wheat tour estimated KS crop at only 178 mil bu and a yield of 30 vs USDA 29 and 45.2 5 year average.
Ukraine export corridor is open but inspection of 62 vessels is very slow.
A wet southern Plains and a dry Midwest will cap any rallies into the end of the week
The Dakotas remain the only real problem for spring planting but progress should advance there as well up into early next week
South Korea’s KFA bought 65k tonnes of corn from either South America or South Africa, at just under $249/tonne C&F for Oct 20 arrival.
Chinese customs yesterday reported April corn imports at an even one million tonnes, down 55% from last year, with cumulative Jan-April imports of 8.52 MMT down just over 8% from last year’s pace.
Wheat imports in April came in at 1.68 MMT, up 141% from last year, with Jan-April wheat imports of 6.03 MMT marking a 61% increase from the first four months of 2022.
The International Grains Council yesterday raised their 2023/24 global corn production estimate by 9 MMT, to 1.217 billion tonnes, due to increases in Brazil and China. That’s above 1.153 bln last year but still below the record 1.223 bln in 2021/22.
World wheat output was down 4 MMT this month to 783 MMT, due to a similarly-sized cut in their U.S. production estimate.
Brazilian oilseed group Abiove raised their 2022/23 soybean production estimate to 153.6 from 155.0 MMT, with exports up from 93.7 to 95.7 MMT.
The Wheat Quality Council Tour estimated Kansas wheat yields at 30.0 bpa at the conclusion of their three day tour, down from a five year average of 45.6 bpa and the lowest since at least 2000, though still above the USDA May estimate of 29.0 bpa. State output was pegged at 178 million bushels, down from 244 mbu last year and below the initial USDA estimate of 191.4 mbu.
The Buenos Aires Exchange cut their 2022/23 Argentine soybean production estimate from 22.5 to 21.0 MMT, with corn output steady at 36 MMT.
Mpls wheat +9
KC wheat +7
Chic wheat +7
Matif wheat +4
Soybean oil +68