GRAIN MARKETING FOR PRODUCERS IN SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN

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Global Wheat Futures Ended Friday Higher…

Global wheat futures ended Friday higher on Friday as WASDE cuts, abandonment acres and continued uncertainty in the grain corridor combined to prop up wheat futures, ending a 4-day losing streak for CBOT.  HRW saw the biggest gains due to cuts to HRW production.

Friday’s WASDE report showed 2023/24 wheat production estimates come in well below market expectations at only 1.659bbu (45.16mmt) with US farmers set to abandon HRW acres at the highest rate since 1917 and harvest only 67% of planted acres.  World 2023/24 ending stocks are expected to fall to 264.34mmt although this was well above market expectations.

Russian spot 12.5pro FOB numbers adjusted down to 251.5/mt FOB ex Novo.

ASW9 prompt prices were indicated CFR SEA in the low $310s and APW1 around $320/mt.

Prices ex Australia remain sticky as cashed up farmers either look towards the corridor for direction or the new financial year starting in July.

 

Agriculture seasonals are stronger in late May lead by KC futures as traders build a risk premium ahead of critical U.S. and Canadian planting and production months.

Wheat futures are higher led by KC, KS missed weekend rains.

Canada, US SW, Parts of Russia and Australia are dry, US north plains are too wet.

Chic July is back testing key resistance near 6.50.

KC July has rallied 164 cents from the May 2 low and is testing 9.00.

Mpls July has rallied 96 cents from the May 2 low.

There is still no word on the Ukraine export corridor extension.

Turkey Presidential election will be in a runoff.

 

Mpls wheat +21

KC wheat +27

Chic wheat +18

Matif wheat +3                (+9/bu)

Canola +9

Rapeseed +0

Soybeans +14

Soybean oil +21

Crude +69

Corn +6

CAD +28

Wheat Futures Are Higher Led By KC.

Ukraine has reportedly begun the much talked about counteroffensive effort at the same time it’s been reported that talks in Istanbul have not been successful.  The current grain deal is set to expire May 18th however Russia has been impeding its capacity recently with only 6 vessels cleared during the last week of April.

 

Wheat futures are higher led by KC.  Some of the driest HRW crop areas missed needed rains.  There is still too much rains in US HRS areas, not enough in Canada, Argentina and Australia.

Australia estimated crop near 28 mmt vs last year record 39.

Key to USDA number is US crop and World 2023/24 crop production especially Black Sea and EU.

 

Nothing much matters until the first USDA print of the new crop (‘23/24) S&D later this morning

The same rhetoric continues from the Black Sea with most parties optimistic of a deal and Russia still complaining.

South Korea’s NOFI bought 132k tonnes of South American corn in an international tender this morning, at $260-262/tonne C&F for October arrival.

Brazil’s Conab raised their 2022/23 soybean production estimate from 153.6 to 154.8 MMT yesterday, with total corn output up from 124.8 to 125.5 MMT

 

Mpls wheat +13

KC wheat +17

Chic wheat +8

Matif wheat +2

Canola +1

Rapeseed +1

Soybeans +3

Soybean oil -2

Crude +65

Corn +0

CAD +0

 

Wheat Futures Rally On Counter Offensive…

Wheat futures rally on counter offensive

The rebuilding of “war premium” in feed grains yesterday was sudden and swift as markets reacted to the apparent drone attack on the Kremlin in Moscow.  According to the Russian Government the 2 drones were launched by Ukraine in a planned terrorist attack as an attempt to assassinate Russian President Putin.  Both drones were downed by electronic warfare systems resulting in no injuries or serious damage.  Ukraine has denied involvement in the incident.  No word yet on how the incident may impact scheduled talks on Friday in Moscow to discuss an extension to the Black Sea Grain Initiative that’s set to expire in just over 2 weeks.  Obviously today’s developments will not help an extension being reached.  Expect market volatility to remain high with so much hanging in the balance. US SRW is still cheaper than Russian on a FOB (vessel freight kills SRW) basis but news Russia sold Egypt old crop wheat near 260 and new crop 255 offers resistance

 

Wheat markets are lower this morning after the Funds took profits on the Ukraine / Russian war news yesterday.  US wheat markets closed 30 cents higher while Matif only 15 cents higher…..

Black Sea tensions remain the massive wild card ahead of proposed talks in Moscow tomorrow, and the looming extension deadline coming up in two weeks.

Beside that, the grains are in a fundamental rut with U.S. export prices generally non competitive, planting happening at a break neck pace before weekend rains and more precipitation for the Plains wheat

Algeria issued an international tender for 70k tonnes of soybean meal for shipment during June and the first half of July; they are also seeking 140k tonnes of corn from Argentina or Brazil for shipment from May through Aug.

Jordan tendered for 120k tonnes of feed barley for Oct-Nov shipment.

Tunisia has issued a tender for 100k tonnes of durum wheat and 75k tonnes of barley, all optional origin, for June-July shipment.

China sold just 16k tonnes of wheat from state reserves this morning, or just over 40% of the total offered, at 2,398 yuan per tonne ($347/MT).

 

Mpls wheat -6

KC wheat -9

Chic wheat -6

Matif wheat -5

Canola -2

Rapeseed +1

Soybeans -5

Soybean oil +38

Crude -12

Corn -6

CAD -2