Category Archives: Mark’s Minutes

Soybeans Continue To Lead Rallies And Recoveries…

The spot March corn contract is at a bit of a technical cross roads this morning while the entire complex seems to be lacking fundamental direction to start the month.

Soybeans continue to lead rallies and recoveries

South Korea’s NOFI bought an estimated 117,500 tonnes of optional origin feed corn this morning in their international tender for up to 138k tonnes, at $337-338/tonne C&F for early May arrival. They also bought 80k tonnes of Australian feed wheat at $340-355/tonne C&F for June-July shipment.

Egypt’s GASC is seeking corn in a tender today and their lowest offer is believed to be from the U.S., right at $300 per tonne cost plus freight.

Algeria bought an estimated 250-300k tonnes of durum wheat in their nominal tender closing yesterday, though one estimate reached as high at 400k tonnes; prices ranged from $448-459 per tonne C&F, likely mainly from Canada, and with shipment sought from mid February through the end of March.

Ukraine’s deputy economy minister said 2023 grain production is expected at 49.5 MMT, down from 51 MMT in 2022 and a record 86 MMT in 2021, but well above producer group estimates this week in the 35-40 MMT range.

Brazilian grain exporting agency Anec estimated January soybean exports at 1.222 MMT, down from 1.356 MMT forecasted last week; corn exports of 4.991 MMT are down from 5.200 MMT estimated last week, with meal at 1.437 MMT (down from 1.521 MMT LW) and wheat at 784k tonnes (down from 804k projected a week ago.

A USDA attaché in Brasilia yesterday estimated the country’s 2022/23 corn crop at 125.5 MMT, up a half million tonnes from the USDA Jan and 8% above last year’s 116 MMT crop.

A USDA attaché in Buenos Aires yesterday pegged 2022/23 Argentine soy-bean production at 36 MMT, 9.5 MMT below the official USDA estimate.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry reported ‘21/22 farmer soy sales at 81% last week, down from 83% at the same point last season after another slow week of activity.  ‘21/22 corn sales of 77% were down two points from last year as well.

 

Mpls wheat -2

KC wheat -5

Chic wheat -8

Matif wheat -1

Canola -2

Rapeseed +0

Soybeans -7

Soybean oil -37

Crude +27

Corn -5

CAD +1

South Korea’s MFG Bought 68k Tonnes Of Australian…

South Korea’s MFG bought 68k tonnes of Australian feed wheat in a private deal this morning without issuing a tender, at $344/tonne cost plus freight for shipment between May 15 and June 15.

UkrAgroConsult reported Ukraine’s corn harvest at 90% complete, or 25.2 MMT, with average yields at 6.65 tonnes per hectare (105.95 bpa).

The USDA yesterday said that Russia’s official 2022 wheat production estimate of 104.43 million tonnes was “not feasible” given growing season weather and past crop figures; the USDA has their crop at 91 MMT.

A USDA attaché in Canberra yesterday estimated Australia’s 2022/23 wheat production at a record 37 MMT, up from 36.3 MMT last season and above the USDA’s current 36.6 MMT estimate; exports are seen at a record 28 MMT, up from 27.5 MMT both LY and estimated by the USDA for ‘22/23.

The European Commission yesterday left their 2022/23 soft wheat production estimate at 126.4 MMT with corn unchanged at 52.1 MMT, and barley even with last month at 51.6 MMT. Soft wheat exports remained at 34.0 MMT.

 

Mpls wheat -3

KC wheat -8

Chic wheat -4

Matif  wheat -2

Canola -2

Rapeseed +1

Soybeans -5

Soybean oil +10

Crude -132

Corn -2

CAD -1

Soybeans Have Generally Had The Lead As Of Late But…

Soybeans have generally had the lead as of late but corn led in overnight volume and is looking to extend its rebound along with wheat this morning, in contrast to a soybean complex that is now facing some adversity with the onset of Argentine rains and the beginning of a monster Brazilian harvest.

Wheat has found a bid from skyrocketing wheat prices in India; the country has not been historically known as a major exporter, but they did ship out a record 8+ MMT in 2021/22 (partially to cover Ukraine’s absence) before shutting down exports in May and now running into supply issues.

Iraq issued an international tender for a nominal 50k tonnes of milling wheat yesterday, with negotiations expected to start today; it can only be sourced from the U.S., Australia, or Canada.

Japan’s Ag Ministry received no offers in their regular SBS auction tender for 70k tonnes of feed wheat and 40k tonnes of feed barley.

India announced that three million tonnes of wheat would be available for purchase by millers from government stocks, more than the 2 MMT expected by the trade at the end of the marketing year in an effort to cool record high domestic prices.  The country’s wheat production fell to 106.8 MMT in 2022, down from 109.6 MMT in 2021, and they banned exports in May as well, but farmers and facilities are running out of wheat stocks.

Brazilian grain exporting association Anec yesterday pegged January soybean exports at 1.356 MMT, down from 1.999 MMT estimated previously; corn exports of 5.2 MMT are up slightly from their last 5.178 MMT estimate, with meal at 1.521 MMT versus 1.587 MMT a week ago.  January wheat exports of 804k tonnes were projected above 753k tonnes seen last week.

European Commission data showed cumulative 2022/23 soft wheat exports since July 1 at 18.14 MMT, up from 17.10 MMT through Jan 22 last year; corn imports of 16.13 MMT are up 81% from last year’s 8.91 MMT pace.

Germany is weighing phasing out crop-based biofuels by the end of the decade, as high agriculture prices renew concerns over using food crops for fuel production.

The country is considering cutting the share of crop-based biofuels, a type of renewable energy source, in its greenhouse gas-reduction quota from the current 4.4% limit to 2.3% next year and zero by 2030, according to a draft bill seen by Bloomberg News. Germany consumes about 10 million tons annually of crops such as rapeseed, corn and soy for biofuels.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent crop prices soaring to records in 2022, stirring the debate over food versus fuel production. Environment Minister Steffi Lemke said last week she would prefer to see biofuels made from waste and residual materials, citing concerns about land use and biological diversity.

Still, crop prices have eased from their peaks and German biofuel association VBD hit back at the proposal, saying it’s “grotesquely anti-climate” and would increase fossil-fuel use. Rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange fell to the lowest since August 2021 earlier this week.

Mpls wheat +5

KC wheat +10

Chic wheat +7

Matif wheat +2

Canola -5

Rapeseed -11

Soybeans -6

Soybean oil -36

Crude +25

Corn +0

CAD -5

 

Grains Started Lower Last Night…

The grains started lower last night and receded further from there, as soybeans took the biggest hit with South American crops seeing wide spread and beneficial rains over the weekend by all accounts.

The BRZ harvest is ready to ramp up and the flow of exports from to China is set to begin.

Private analysts AgRural estimated the 2022/23 Brazilian soybean harvest at just under 2% complete as of Thursday, down from nearly 5% a year ago; their production estimate was cut from 153.6 to 152.9 million tonnes, with corn down from 124.3 to 123.9 MMT as well.

Friday afternoon’s USDA Cattle on Feed Report showed all U.S. cattle on feed as of January 1 at 11.682 million head, or 97.1% of last year, above the average trade estimate of 96.8%.  December cattle placements came in at 92.0% of last year, above the 91.0% guess, with December marketings at 93.9% of last year, below the estimated at 94.7% figure.

 

Mpls wheat -10

KC wheat -13

Chic wheat -10

Matif wheat -4

Canola -5

Rapeseed -11

Soybeans -16

Soybean oil -15

Crude +39

Corn -6

CAD -13