CBOT wheat futures shrugged off lower Canadian production and closed lower for the 4th consecutive session as weak which saw the December contract make a new low at 600.50c/bu.
Weak export demand and subsequent growing new crop stocks at port around the Black Sea / EU saw Chicago Dec down -16.50c, Kansas -20.50c, Minneapolis -5.75c and Matif -€4.00.
Erdogan is expected to fly to Sochi next week to discuss reviving the Black Sea Grain Initiative with Putin. A spokesman for Turkey’s ruling party said “We evaluate that there will be new developments on this issue and a new phase can be reached.”
The price action just continues to reinforce the idea that no one cares right now that basis and spreads are weakening pushing futures lower making end users sit on their hands. The wheat complex has broken down technically with new lows being set in all classes
Midwest forecasts remain unrelenting through mid week with no real chance to escape hot and dry conditions now up into the middle of September
Wheat has received some fleeting support at lows with North American supply concerns in focus, though the Black Sea region still largely sets the pace on the global export market.
Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat this morning for Oct-Nov shipment; the lowest FOB offer stands at just over $259/tonne C&F from France.
Algeria issued an international tender for a nominal 50k tonnes of durum wheat, for shipment from October through December.
South Korea’s MFG bought 55k tonnes of Black Sea feed wheat yesterday morning at $274/tonne cost plus freight, for Oct-Nov shipment.
Tunisia has tendered for 75k tonnes of durum and 50k tonnes of feed barley.
A Farm Futures magazine survey of nearly 1,000 producers from July 15 through August 1 estimated 2024 corn plantings at 93.1 million acres, down from 94.1 mln in 2023, with soybeans at 85.4 mln ac, up from 83.5 mln this season. All wheat seedings came in at 52.7 mln, up almost 6% vs 2023.
Statistics Canada yesterday estimated 2023 wheat production at 29.5 million tonnes, down 14% from last year’s 34.3 MMT, with canola down 6% year over year. 2023 corn output was pegged at 14.7 MMT, up from 14.5 MMT in 2022, with soybeans at 6.7 MMT, up from 6.5 MMT last season.
Brazilian grain exporting agency Anec yesterday pegged August soybean exports at 7.37 MMT, up from 5.05 MMT in the same month last year; corn exports of 9.19 MMT would be up from 6.89 MMT in Aug ‘22, with meal exports of 1.93 MMT up from 1.69 MMT in August of last season.
European Commission data showed cumulative soft wheat exports since July 1 at 4.49 MMT, down 29% from last year’s 6.31 MMT pace; Romania was the largest exporting country at 1.26 MMT, with Morocco the largest importer from the E.U. at 915k tonnes. Corn imports stand at 2.37 MMT through 8/27, down from 3.90 MMT last year; Spain is the largest importer at 809k tonnes, with Ukraine by far the largest supplier of imports at 1.52 million tonnes.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported cumulative grain exports since July 1 at 4.34 MMT, up from 3.96 MMT through the end of August last season, including August grain exports at 2.07 MMT so far.
Mpls wheat -2
KC wheat +2
Chic wheat +7
Matif wheat +2
Soybean oil +50