Category Archives: Mark’s Minutes

CBOT Wheat Rebounds On Putin Comments…

MB Crop Report

CBOT wheat rebounds on Putin comments

Wheat futures settled midrange overnight +13.50 for WZ as comments from Putin over the grain corridor added risk premium back in to the market.

The Russian President reiterated Ukraine wheat was going pass the poorest countries, describing it as a ‘swindle’.

Matif also enjoyed a higher session +4.25 for the Dec contract and momentarily making new monthly highs during the day’s trade.

Putin also commented Russia is set to harvest a record 100mmt of wheat with the country already passing the milestone the week ending 26 September and 101.3mmt already harvested at around 95% complete.

Aussie FOB prices were a little softer yesterday with WA APW for Jan at high $350s although CFR SEA values remained around $380-385/mt.

Corn and soybeans posted solid overnight trade volume but it’s wheat that’s holding up the complex this morning with commodities overall still facing massive headwinds from that surging USD. Grain exports are still flowing out of the Black Sea region but the trade remains on edge as the war continues

Importers from the Philippines have tendered for 45-50k tonnes each of feed wheat and feed barley, for Jan-Feb-March shipment.

Algeria has issued an international tender for a nominal 50k tonnes of wheat.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry reported farmer sales of the 2021/22 soybean crop at 65%, behind last year with sales slowing into the end of September when preferential exchange rates expire.  Corn sales for 2021/22 stand at 67%, up from 62% at this point last year.

U.S. Ag Secretary Vilsack yesterday said talks with Mexico are continuing regarding their looming GMO corn ban; Mexican officials seem to be doubling down on the decree that phases out GMO corn and glyphosate by 2024.

European Commission data showed cumulative soft wheat exports since July 1 at 8.80 MMT, up from 8.75 MMT through Sept 25 last year; corn imports of 6.65 MMT are up from last year’s 3.67 MMT pace.

Brazilian grain exporting association Anec yesterday estimated September soybean exports at 3.82 MMT, down from 4.15 MMT seen previously, with corn at 7.13 MMT, down from 7.62 MMT last week.  BRZ meal exports of 2.01 MMT are down from last week’s 2.225 MMT estimate as well.

Mpls wheat +10

KC wheat +14

Chic wheat +14

Matif wheat +3

Canola +2

Rapeseed +3

Soybeans -1

Soybean oil -69

Crude +94

Corn +2

CAD -4

Wheat Markets Trade Lower To End The Week …

Wheat markets trade lower to end the week

Wheat finished the week lower on Friday as exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports continue despite Russia’s mobilisation of an extra 300k troops.

CBOT(Z) finished -30.25c for the day however for the week still finished in the black +20.75c with ample risk premium priced in earlier in the week.

The AUD and CAD continues to get pummelled by a booming USD and currently sits at a 2 year lows

In cash markets, Philippines PAFMI were heard to have booked 1 45k ASW/FW cargo in the mid $350s for a Jan shipment.

In what could be a blow to the grain corridor, Russia bombed the port city of Odessa for the 2nd time in a week which damaged buildings near the grain terminals, but there was no damage to the grain terminals

Despite the ongoing conflict, Russia could harvest a record 100mmt this season, although the wheat is expected to pile up due to sanction induced reduced access to export markets.

 

U.S. dollar/economic/outside market headwinds have arguably never been stronger, with U.S. farmers primed to fire up harvest and bring new crop supplies to a tight cash market.

This extended run of a strong USD will help ration off some export demand and loosen up the S&D table a bit

Taiwan millers are seeking 52k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat this week, in a range of different types for November shipment.

South Korea’s NOFI bought an estimated 135k tonnes of corn in their international tender closing this morning, for late January 2023 arrival.

Pakistan is seeking 300k tonnes of wheat in a tender closing today, though they only got one participant with a low offer coming in at $399/tonne C&F

The U.N. issued an international tender for 100k tonnes of milling wheat, for donations to countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, for Oct-Nov.

SovEcon estimated Russian September grain exports at 4.75 MMT, up from 4.20 MMT in August, with wheat at 4.3 MMT vs 3.5 MMT last month.

Private analysts APK-Inform on Saturday raised their 2022 Ukraine grain production estimate from 52.5-55.4 to 54.1-55.7 MMT, including 19 MM of wheat, 30 MM of corn, and 5.5 MMT of barley.  ‘22/23 (July-June) grain exports were pegged at 22.6 to 38.8 MMT depending on the logistics situation, including anywhere from 6.5 to 12.0 MMT of wheat exports this season.

Mpls wheat –4

KC wheat -4

Chic wheat -7

Matif wheat -2

Canola -2

Rapeseed -16

Soybeans -2

Soybean oil -66

Crude +79

Corn -4

CAD -19

Soybeans Led What There Was For Overnight…

Soybeans led what there was for overnight trade volume, off evening highs but finding technical support and holding up the grain complex at this point.

Fundamental news is likely to be light this week but we should start to get anecdotal yield reports as combines ease into the fields.

Wheat is the anchor to start the week with Russian production and exports rolling.

Saudi Arabia bought 556k tonnes of wheat in their international tender that closed on Friday, at an average price of $372/tonne C&F for Nov-Feb arrival from EU, BS, NA, SA and Aus.

Pakistan has issued an international tender for 300k tonnes of wheat for Oct.

Bangladesh cancelled their international tender for 50k tonnes of wheat.

Russian consultancy IKAR once again raised their 2022 wheat production estimate, to 99 MMT, with up to 47.5 MMT potentially available for export.

Russia’s SovEcon estimated September grain exports at 4.85 MMT, up from 4.20 MMT in August, with wheat at 4.3 MMT versus 3.5 MMT last month.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry this weekend reported a total of 165 ships containing 3.7 MMT of agricultural products have left Ukraine under the joint agreement with the U.N. and Turkey as of Saturday, with another ten ships at 169k tonnes set to leave yesterday.  Cumulative grain exports since July 1 stand at 6.36 MMT, down 46% from last year’s pace, and including 3.72 MMT of corn, 2.06 MMT of wheat, and 557k tonnes of barley.  The Ag Min expects September grain exports to hit 5.4-5.5 MMT, up from 4.5 MMT in August.  They left their 2022 grain production estimate unchanged this month at 50-52 MMT, down from 86 MMT last year.

Mpls wheat -17

KC wheat -22

Chic wheat -23

Matif wheat -5

Canola -14

Rapeseed -10

Soybeans -3

Soybean oil -61

Crude -281

Corn -5

CAD -26

World Q3 Wheat Exports Are Down 9 MMT…

World Q3 wheat exports are down 9 mmt from last year due to high prices and weaker currency

The grains are looking to slink into the end of the week amid low trade volume and completing a week long decline off highs

The trade (and the government) has its doubts about the size of 2022 U.S. row crops but ultimately won’t be able to verify until combines get into the fields

Grain trade group Coceral this morning cut their 2022 E.U. corn production estimate from 66.0 to 51.9 MMT, down from 70.2 MMT last season; soft wheat output fell from 143.0 to 140.5 MMT, versus 143.4 MMT in 2021.

FranceAgriMer finally published an unchanged corn condition ratings week over week, at 43% good/excellent this week, that compares to 89% at this point last season.  The harvest advanced from 5% to 14% this week, with the 2021 corn harvest having yet to begin at this point.

UkrAgroConsult reported the 2022 Ukraine grain harvest at 26 MMT, from 6.78 million hectares (16.75 mln acres); wheat was 99% done on 4.7 mln ha (11.6 mln ac), at 19.2 MMT, with corn 0.3% complete on 12k ha (just over 30 thousand acres), at 64k tonnes thus far.

The chief agronomist for the Rosario Grains Exchange said that they would likely cut their 2022/23 corn planted acreage estimate in their monthly report next week, currently standing at 8.2 million hectares (20.3 mln acres), due to widespread drought causing “the worst planting scenario in the last 27 years.  Some towns had their lowest June-August rainfall since 1933.

 

Mpls wheat -3

KC wheat -5

Chic wheat -5

Matif wheat -2

Canola -2

Rapeseed -7

Soybeans -6

Soybean oil +71

Crude +88

Corn -3

CAD -40

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