Global wheat futures ended Friday higher on Friday as WASDE cuts, abandonment acres and continued uncertainty in the grain corridor combined to prop up wheat futures, ending a 4-day losing streak for CBOT. HRW saw the biggest gains due to cuts to HRW production.
Friday’s WASDE report showed 2023/24 wheat production estimates come in well below market expectations at only 1.659bbu (45.16mmt) with US farmers set to abandon HRW acres at the highest rate since 1917 and harvest only 67% of planted acres. World 2023/24 ending stocks are expected to fall to 264.34mmt although this was well above market expectations.
Russian spot 12.5pro FOB numbers adjusted down to 251.5/mt FOB ex Novo.
ASW9 prompt prices were indicated CFR SEA in the low $310s and APW1 around $320/mt.
Prices ex Australia remain sticky as cashed up farmers either look towards the corridor for direction or the new financial year starting in July.
Agriculture seasonals are stronger in late May lead by KC futures as traders build a risk premium ahead of critical U.S. and Canadian planting and production months.
Wheat futures are higher led by KC, KS missed weekend rains.
Canada, US SW, Parts of Russia and Australia are dry, US north plains are too wet.
Chic July is back testing key resistance near 6.50.
KC July has rallied 164 cents from the May 2 low and is testing 9.00.
Mpls July has rallied 96 cents from the May 2 low.
There is still no word on the Ukraine export corridor extension.
Turkey Presidential election will be in a runoff.
Mpls wheat +21
KC wheat +27
Chic wheat +18
Matif wheat +3 (+9/bu)
Soybean oil +21