Ukraine has reportedly begun the much talked about counteroffensive effort at the same time it’s been reported that talks in Istanbul have not been successful. The current grain deal is set to expire May 18th however Russia has been impeding its capacity recently with only 6 vessels cleared during the last week of April.
Wheat futures are higher led by KC. Some of the driest HRW crop areas missed needed rains. There is still too much rains in US HRS areas, not enough in Canada, Argentina and Australia.
Australia estimated crop near 28 mmt vs last year record 39.
Key to USDA number is US crop and World 2023/24 crop production especially Black Sea and EU.
Nothing much matters until the first USDA print of the new crop (‘23/24) S&D later this morning
The same rhetoric continues from the Black Sea with most parties optimistic of a deal and Russia still complaining.
South Korea’s NOFI bought 132k tonnes of South American corn in an international tender this morning, at $260-262/tonne C&F for October arrival.
Brazil’s Conab raised their 2022/23 soybean production estimate from 153.6 to 154.8 MMT yesterday, with total corn output up from 124.8 to 125.5 MMT
Mpls wheat +13
KC wheat +17
Chic wheat +8
Matif wheat +2
Soybean oil -2