Note AB drop in canola production month over month
But again for this report, no one believes the StatsCan canola number, canola down 4.6 ten minutes after the report
Note: Analysts and traders surveyed by Reuters on average estimated production at 34.5 mln tonnes of all wheat, 6.2 mln tonnes of durum wheat, 19.9 mln tonnes of canola, 4.5 mln tonnes of oats, and 9.6 mln tonnes of barley
Wheat futures are adding to prices amid concern about US 2023 HRW crop weather is dry and the potential closing of the Ukraine export corridor.
US export prices are higher than Russia but so far, Russia wheat exports to date are slower than needed to reach USDA goal.
India has banned wheat, flour and rice exports.
Soybeans continue to drive what there is for overnight trade volume, hanging in there after punching through $15 for 2 1/2-month highs yesterday
Corn and wheat remain on edge near recent move highs as well.
Transportation issues are now at the forefront post-USDA, that might go double for fertilizer, not just grain. With the trade watching U.S. rail development closely, and Putin continuing to criticize Ukraine grain shipments while the U.N. tries to broker a deal for Russia ammonia exports through Ukraine.
Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of corn from Brazil in an international tender closing this morning, for November-December shipment.
Sources reported that multiple U.S. railroads will halt shipments of crops or fertilizers today, a day ahead the potential railway strike; railroads have until a minute after midnight on Friday to reach a deal with 60,000 union workers. The US government is “looking into it”, still holding the ability to avert a strike; there is also reports from the Union side that the two sides are “not that far apart” in their negotiations over pay and attendance policies.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported 1.5 MMT of grain exports from Sept 1-13, down 34% from the same period last year; cumulative exports since July 1 stand at 5.8 MMT, down from 10.9 MMT in the same period in ‘21/22. That includes 3.4 MMT of corn, 1.83 MMT of wheat, and 525k tonnes of barley.
FranceAgriMer this morning cut their estimate for 2022/23 (July-June) French soft wheat exports outside the European Union, from 10.3 MMT to 10.0 MMT, still up from 8.79 MMT in ‘21/22. Exports inside the Union rose slightly, from 7.02 to 7.13 MMT. The firm has yet to estimate production for the drought-stricken 2022/23 corn crop, but they did cut ‘21/22 ending corn stocks from 2.62 to 2.23 million tonnes this month.
Brazilian grain exporting agency Anec estimated September soybean exports at 4.471 MMT, up from 3.916 MMT last week, with corn exports at 7.880 MMT, up from 6.310 MMT previously. Soybean meal exports of 2.115 MMT for September are up from 2.048 MMT estimated previously.
Mpls wheat unch
KC wheat -1
Chic wheat -6
Matif wheat -1
Canola -2
Rapeseed -9
Soybeans -1
Soybean oil +41
Crude +127
Corn -6
CAD -12