Wheat up nearly 5% on Friday ahead of Monday’s WASDE
Market pundits sent wheat contracts soaring higher at the end of last week as further conjecture around Putin’s comments on the grain corridor and wheat this week’s meeting between Putin and Erdogan will bring, adds risk to the possibility of continued Ukrainian exports. Also reports of additional shelling near the nuclear plant in Ukraine added support.
Analysts ahead of today’s WASDE report are expecting 2022/23 US corn stocks at 10 years lows at 1.217bbu vs the Aug report at 1.388bbu.
In tender news, Bangladesh has now cancelled their 3rd tender in a row.
Recent frosts in Argentina are expected to have damaged wheat quality
Futures canola market was holding onto small gains at midday Friday, seeing some consolidation to end the week after posting large losses in recent sessions. There should be crusher and export demand adding to the support at these levels.
The grains opened lower last night but are looking buoyant this morning, using headwinds from the dollar and commodities to fan the flames heading into this morning’s USDA September S&D Report; a sizeable, bullish overhaul to the corn balance sheet is widely expected by the trade.
France and Romania are set to sign a deal that would increase Ukraine grain exports to developing countries, including the Mediterranean, after Russian President Putin expressed displeasure with the destinations of UKR grain.
The Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC) this morning estimated that winter wheat plantings would fall by “at least” 30% due to reduced prices and increased inputs, from 4.6 million hectares last year to 3.8 mln ha (11.4 to 9.3 mln acres) this season. More than 6 mln ha (14.8 mln ac) were actually planted for last year’s crop, before the Russian invasion.
SovEcon estimated Russian September grain exports at 4.95 MMT, up from 4.2 MMT in August, with wheat at 4.4 MMT vs 3.5 MM last month.
Mpls wheat -5
KC wheat -4
Chic wheat -4
Matif wheat -1
Soybean oil +33