Chic wheat closes back over $9/bu
For the first time since June, CBOT Dec closed back over $9/bu, with more risk piled on from Putin’s annexation of 4 Ukraine regions and a bullish kick from the US small grains summary which had US wheat production more than 7% lower than trade expectations.
Putin on Friday addressed the nation and a room full of supporters where he launched into a criticism of the West, its allies and urged Ukraine to ceasefire before illegally annexing 4 Ukrainian regions following the false referendums held earlier in the week. Nuclear weapons were again brought up with it seemingly looking like Putin’s trump card as their forces continue to lose ground against Ukraine’s army.
The US Small Grains Summary released on Friday showed US wheat production well below trade expectations, coming in more then 7% below estimates at only 1.65bbu (44.9mmt).
Russia continues to reduce the wheat export tax for the 8th consecutive week. The new tax for the period of 5-11 Oct will be RUB2,117/mt (USD37.16/mt).
In tender news, Algeria has booked 300k of BSMW at a price of USD370/mt CFR for Nov shipment.
Australia looks set for a very wet 8 days with NSW especially in for a wet time with the BOM showing much of the state and growing areas set for up to 100mm. Protein offers are getting harder to come by with most sellers now preferring to offer SFW/ASW markets.
The grain markets opened solidly across the board last night, with the soybean complex paring gains since after receiving drastically different results from the feed grains in Friday’s USDA data.
Trade focus should return to harvest results and yield estimates in the next week plus, with private and public corn yield numbers now even more crucial after the government shaved a quick 150 million bushels off the domestic corn balance sheet
Russia’s SovEcon estimated September grain exports at 4.45 MMT, up from 4.20 MM in August, with wheat at 4.1 MMT, up from 3.5 MMT last month. The firm reported a pickup in pace of winter grain (mostly wheat) plantings as of late, standing at 9.4 million hectares (23.2 mln ac), still down from 10.7 mln ha (26.4 mln ac) on this date last year, but gaining ground on 2021/22.
Russia’s Ag Minister said the country may start providing financing to their grain importers, after some issues with settlements. The number of importers paying with roubles or their local currency is rising with each month.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported September grain exports at 4.28 MM, down 24% from last year but still the strongest month since the Russian invasion. That included 2.08 MMT of corn, 1.75 MMT of wheat, and 432k tonnes of barley. Cumulative ‘22/23 imports of 8.6 MMT are still down over 40% from last year’s pace, including 4.8 MMT of corn, 3.0 MMT wheat, 762k barley.
Mpls wheat +11
KC wheat +14
Chic wheat +12
Matif wheat -1
Soybean oil +15