Global wheat markets slumped yesterday as poor US export sales and a surging USD pressured global Ag markets lower.
US export sales came in with the worst week (for this time of year) for soybeans since 2011, corn since 2012 and wheat since 2015. Wheat was only 229kmt which was at the low end of expectations.
Other news triggering the sell-off was word that Russia might extended Ukraine export corridor.
Vessel inspections times in Istanbul for vessels passing in and out of the Bosphorus Strait have swelled from as low as 2 days to now 10-15 days leading to a backlog of vessels wanting to ship Ukraine grains.
Russia, Germany and French wheat export prices are all below US and Canada, SEA bids are USD 10-15 per mt below N American values
World July-Sep wheat trade is down 16 pct vs last year.
Aussie export values have started to creep higher with APW1 FOB ex-WA indicated around $370/mt and ASW9 at $355/mt for Jan/Feb. Protein values continue to firm as rain pelts the EC of Australia.
Wheat is showing a bit of life this morning, recovering from yesterday’s losses as the grain complex limps into the end of the week
Private analysts IHS Markit (Informa) yesterday pegged 2022 U.S. corn yields at 171.2 bushels per acre, down from 171.6 bpa last month, with production at 13.839 billion bushels, 105 mbu below the USDA Sept. Soybean yields fell from 50.5 to 49.9 bpa this month, with output there pegged at 4.327 bln bu, 51 mbu below the working government figure.
Brazilian government supply agency Conab yesterday morning initially estimated the country’s 2022/23 soybean crop at 152.35 MMT, up over 21% from last year’s 125.55 MMT crop, with acreage up 3.4% from ‘21/22. Total corn production of 126.7 MMT would be up 12.5% from last year’s 112.8 MMT. Wheat output was pegged at 9.36 MMT, up 22% YoY. 2022/23 soybean exports of 95.6 MMT are up from 78.3 MMT last season, with corn exports of 15 MMT up from 37 MMT In 2021/22.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry yesterday reported 468k tonnes of grain in the first five days of October (mostly corn), down just over 20% from last year’s comparable 589k tonne figure. Cumulative grain exports since July 1 stand at 9.17 MMT, down from 14.95 MMT over the same span last season. They also reported the completion of the 2022 wheat and barley harvests, at 19.2 and 5.5 MMT, respectively. That was down from 32.2 MMT of wheat in 2021 and 9.4 MMT of barley last season. Corn harvest stands at just over 2% complete.
FranceAgriMer reported the French corn harvest at 67% complete as of 10/3, up from 51% the week prior and just 6% on the comparable date last year. Good/excellent ratings were steady week-over-week at 41%, still the lowest level for that dataset in over a decade. Winter wheat planting stands at 3%.
Mpls wheat +10
KC wheat +10
Chic wheat +10
Matif wheat +5
Canola -3
Rapeseed +4
Soybeans -4
Soybean oil -11
Crude +104
Corn +1
CAD +23