As the Indian export ban played out in real time on Monday’s opening, wheat markets went berserk. CBOT, KC and MGEX all finished lock limit up, front month Matif( finished +€21.75 at an all-time high of €438.25/mt and front month ASX finished +$8.00 at an all-time high of $483.00/mt.
Many anecdotal reports of how the ban will play out have surfaced on the twittersphere with Egypt allegedly already buying 500k at $400/mt CFR from the G2G channel. Some government figures have said India will honour all contracts, while there are reports of up to 1.8mmt of wheat trapped at the port unable to be exported.
Pakistan’s TCP is holding a wheat tender next Wednesday 25 May for 500k (they always take more). Suppliers are being told to offer a minimum of 100k.
The US crop progress report revealed winter wheat crop conditions deteriorated with the G/E rating at 27%. Spring wheat planting remains slow, now at 39% compared to 27% LW although was below expectations of 43%.
India Commerce Ministry says:
Have announced relaxation to the May 13 DGFT order which restricted wheat exports
Relaxation applies to consignments handed over to Customs on or before May 13
Wheat consignment headed for Egypt already under loading at the Kandla port
Egyptian govt had requested permission for wheat cargo being loaded at Kandla port
Wheat popped higher last night after its limit session yesterday but it’s been downhill since, with the spot Chi July contract falling almost 75 cents from evening highs to test the $12/bu mark and nearly fill the weekend gap.
India’s indecisiveness has added a whole new element to an already volatile market.
U.S. corn and bean planting is picking up through mid-month
Japan is seeking 175k tonnes of milling wheat in their regular weekly tender, including 60k from the U.S., 91k from Canada, and 24k from Australia.
India will allow the export of both wheat shipments already awaiting customs clearance, and exports to Egypt
They reportedly have 1.8 MMT of wheat trapped in ports following the earlier export ban announcement, and 4.3 MMT total sold for exports out of their initial 10 MMT target. India did make official a 500k tonne sale to Egypt’s state government that was floated earlier.
Trade sources said around 300k tonnes of Ukrainian wheat bought by Egypt for Feb-March delivery is still either waiting to be loaded or stuck in ports.
Mpls wheat -11
KC wheat -22
Chic wheat -14
Matif wheat -5
Soybean oil +1