Double digit gains across the board for US wheat futures with July CBOT +20.25c, KC +25.50c and MGEX once again leading the way due to delayed plantings +42.50c.
The close put CBOT once again over $11/bu and KC over $12/bu and closer to the multi-year high of $12.59 set back in March.
Matif has closed back above €400/mt due to concerns in the region over tightening wheat supplies.
The May WASDE today has analysts and pundits alike putting forth their best estimates.
Estimates averages for wheat:
US ending stocks 2021/22 – 686mbu (+10mbu from April WASDE)
US ending stocks 2022/23 – 659mbu
Global ending stocks 2021/22 – 278.30mmt (-120kmt from April WASDE)
Global ending stocks 2022/23 – 272.07mmt
Cash FOB markets have been stable this week. WA APW FOB remains steady around $420-425/mt for Aug/Sep. Indian wheat remains the most competitive origin with FOB at $350-355/mt for June/July.
Corn dominated trade volume overnight and has surged back to the high side in the early morning hours, plenty edgy ahead of the May USDA, even with U.S. planting rolling in rapid fashion for most this week.
Taiwan’s MFIG has tendered for 65k tonnes of corn for Aug-Sept shipment.
Algeria started to buy optional-origin milling wheat yesterday at $466/tonne C&F, with volumes initially estimated at 180-300k tonnes for June-July.
Jordan bought 60k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat in a tender yester-day morning, at $436/tonne C&F for shipment during the second half of June.
India is sending trade delegations to nine countries in an attempt to boost wheat exports; they are looking for a record 10 MMT of exports in 2022/23.
Strategie Grains cut their 2021/22 (July-June) E.U. soft wheat export estimate from 31.4 to 29.9 MMT this month due to strong Russian shipments, though they did raise 2022/23 exports from 30.3 to 30.8 MMT. ‘22/23 wheat output fell from 126.7 to 126.2 MMT, down from 130.3 MMT in ‘21/22, with corn production up from 66.3 to 66.7 MMT this coming season.
China’s Ag Ministry is looking for nearly a 2% decline in corn acreage in 2022, with soybeans up over 18% year-over-year. Soybean imports were pegged at 95.2 MMT for 2022/23, up 2.4% from the previous season.
The Rosario Grains Exchange yesterday estimated the 2022/23 Argentine wheat harvest at 19 MMT, down from 22.1 MMT last season.
Mpls wheat +1
KC wheat -4
Chic wheat -3
Matif wheat +2
Soybean oil -129