CAD Down Hard This Morning But Fighting Back A Bit…

CAD down hard this morning but fighting back a bit

Wheat futures are mixed with KC and MLS gaining on Chicago.

Russia continues to offer wheat export prices into the summer below US and other exporters.

For the week, WK is down 19 cents, KWK down 7 and MWK up 10.

Monday is a CBOT/MGEX/ICE holiday


Canola was steady overnight after being mixed to higher on Thursday on strong volume despite a lack of fresh inputs to lean on and mixed outside influences.

Trend-following funds have been idle over recent weeks despite the rise in open interest due to the choppy tone and overall lack of direction (or lack of conviction on either side of the market). Germany may look to ban crop based biofuels by 2030, which would be a blow to the Canadian canola sector (the EU is a top customer of Canada canola), however, by 2030, Canada will see a big uptick in domestic demand with more crush plants on line that would easily negate the impact of reduced EU demand.


Corn and soybeans have found buyers at the end of a mostly negative week of trade, with Argentina continuing to see the short end of the weather stick, and neither crop willing to give ground into the spring U.S. planting campaign.  USDA Ag Forum acreage estimates arrive next week.

South Korea’s NOFI issued an international tender for up to 138k tonnes of optional origin corn this morning, for June arrival.

Ukraine officials said that negotiations on extending the Black Sea grain export deal will start in a week, as it’s up for renewal again in March after being extended in November.  Russian officials have indicated unhappiness with the agreement as of late and are looking for a reduction of some sanctions.

Ukraine grain traders union UGA this morning pegged 2023 grain production at 64.8 MMT, down from 72.7 MMT in 2022, and including 17.4 MMT of wheat (vs 21 MMT LY) and 21.1 MMT of corn (vs 27 MMT LY).  2023/24 wheat exports were seen at 14 MMT (up slightly from 13.5 MMT in 2022/23) with corn at 20 MMT (down from 22.5 MMT this season).

FranceAgriMer reported 93% of French soft wheat in good or excellent condition as of 2/13, up a point from the previous week’s rating but below 95% last year and the 97% initially reported in early December.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday technically left their 2022/23 Argentine corn and soybean production estimates steady at 44.5 and 38.0 mil-lion tonnes, respectively, but warned of early frosts in the coming days potentially further hurting already-damaged crops in southern regions.

The International Grains Council cut ‘22/23 world corn output by 8 MMT, to 1.153 billion tonnes, due to lower revisions in the U.S. and Argentina.


Mpls wheat -1

KC wheat +1

Chic wheat -1

Matif wheat -1

Canola +5

Rapeseed +0

Soybeans +3

Soybean oil -54

Crude -287

Corn +1

CAD -39