Mixed close for wheat futures yesterday
US wheat futures finished the day mostly lower apart from the front month CBOT contracts which were only marginally higher. KC futures were down -14.25c on the March contract following the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum which showed a sharp increase to planted acres and yield for 2023/24.
CFR SEA prices saw APW1 offers slightly cheaper thanks to a weaker AUD with prices dipping below $360/mt again.
Grain exports from Ukraine have slowed down recently as the export corridor nears the end of its term. 3mmt of grain were shipped out in Jan, down from 3.7MMT in Dec, and only 1.5MMT had been shipped by Feb 20 for this month. There is now a backlog of 140 ships waiting for inspection to clear the Bosporus Strait.
The current US drought monitor shows much of the HRW acres currently in drought conditions, leaving the USDA’s yield for 2023 in jeopardy.
Wheat futures continues to trade lower. Lower Russia wheat prices continues to offer resistance. Some say top 3 Russian grain companies hold most of the wheat and are aggressive in selling wheat for export at lower prices.
South Korea’s FLC bought 65k tonnes of corn from either the U.S., South America, or South Africa in a private deal this morning without issuing a tender, at $334.50/tonne C&F for June arrival. The country’s NOFI bought 69k tonnes of corn in an international tender for 138k, at the same price for April- May, while Korea’s KFA bought 63k tonnes of optional-origin corn at $335.50/tonne C&F for June arrival as well.
FranceAgriMer reported a second consecutive increase in French soft wheat ratings this week, up two points to 95% good/excellent.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday cut their 2022/23 Argentine soybean production estimate from 38.0 to 33.5 million tonnes; they cut corn output from 44.5 to 41.0 MMT as well.
AgRural reported Brazilian second crop corn planting running well behind pace in Parana and Mato Grosso, the second and third-largest production states; the former stands at 18% done, down from 40% last year and the 23% five-year average, with the latter at 6%, versus 34% LY and the 17% 5YA.
The European Commission cut ‘22/23 E.U. soft wheat exports from 34.0 to 32.0 MMT, still up 9% from last year’s 29.3 MMT; ending wheat stocks rose from 15.4 to 17.1 MMT this month, the highest level in four years.
Private analysts APK-Inform estimated 2022/23 Ukraine grain exports at 39.2 MMT, up from their previous 39.09 MMT estimate last month, and including 13.5 MMT of wheat, 23.0 MMT of corn, and 2.4 MMT of barley. Cumulative grain exports through February 22 stand at 30.8 MMT, down 28.4% vs LY.
Mpls wheat -8
KC wheat -13
Chic wheat -11
Matif wheat -4
Canola -3
Rapeseed -1
Soybeans -1
Soybean oil +14
Crude -33
Corn -6
CAD -52