Wheat Opened Solidly Last Night And Showed…

Wheat opened solidly last night and showed some strength on more Russian drone attacks on Danube River grain ports, but it’s fallen back to range bound trade by this morning as the wheat market retains it’s bearish tone with large crops in other major shippers, including Russia itself, have kept the market under pressure this year, with prices down about 20% since the end of December.

The trade seems fairly content with “Pro” Farmer corn yield and soybean pod count results thus far, appearing that a major production disaster has been averted, though the most anticipated results are yet to come in IA and IL today and tomorrow.

Egypt’s GASC yesterday bought 60k tonnes of Romanian wheat in their international tender, at $270/tonne C&F for October shipment.  They are seeking corn in a tender closing today and their lowest qualifying offer there stands at $259 per tonne cost plus freight from Romania, for late October shipment.  Two U.S. offers via ADM came in at $231-233/tonne FOB but were rejected due to protein and moisture levels.

Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65k tonnes of corn from Brazil for Oct-Nov.

Thailand importers bought 60k tonnes of feed wheat from the European Union, at $274/tonne C&F for November shipment.

South Korea’s NOFI bought 68k tonnes of corn in a tender for up to 138k, from either South America or South Africa, for Oct-Nov; the country’s NOFI rejected all offers in their tender for up to 130k tonnes of feed wheat; and Korea’s MFG bought 66k tonnes of corn in a private deal, also from either South America or South Africa and set for Oct-Nov shipment.

Russia’s Sovecon consultancy yesterday raised their 2023 wheat production estimate from 87.1 to 92.1 MMT, with corn up from 14.6 to 14.8 MMT and barley up from 18.6 to 20.9 MMT.

European Commission data showed cumulative 2023/24 E.U. soft wheat exports at 4.06 MMT through 8/20, down from 5.12 MMT at this point a year ago, with corn imports at 2.12 MMT versus 3.25 MMT last season.

A major soybean buying official said at a conference today that Chinese soybean imports should hit the 100 MMT mark in 2023, above the USDA’s estimate for 98 MMT, and “hover around that level” for the next five years.

Day two of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour saw the eastern leg estimate Indiana corn yields at 180.9 bushels per acre, up from 177.85 bpa last year but below the 183.7 bpa three year average

Soybean pod counts averaged 1,310, up from 1,166 last year and the 1,229 3YA.

The western leg of the tour pegged Nebraska corn at 167.2 bpa, up from 158.5 bpa LY but below the 172.0 bpa 3YA.

NE soybean pod counts averaged 1,160, up from 1,064 LY but below the 1,196-pod three-year average.


Mpls wheat +1

KC wheat -1

Chic wheat +1

Matif wheat -1

Canola -4

Rapeseed -1

Soybeans -5

Soybean oil -33

Crude -122

Corn +3

CAD -21