Wheat was pushed either side yesterday as US CPI data followed by threats from Russia over the grain corridor saw wheat trade lower and then higher only to settle +10c higher on the Dec contract.
US CPI data showed consumer prices increased higher than expected in the month of September with markets now 91% sure of a 4th straight 75bp hike by the Fed next month.
A Reuters article yesterday reported Russia was ready to quit the Ukraine grain deal as its demands for wheat and fertilizer exports were not being met and may withhold support for a November extension if their concerns are not addressed.
Rain continues to pelt Australia’s EC with parts of VIC now flooded with some areas copping more than 100mm. The forecast for early next week turns very wet again for QLD and NSW.
Overnight grain volume was mediocre but dominated by soybeans, which are propping up the complex this morning against dollar and overall commodity headwinds.
The grains seem content on the charts for now with wheat range bound, and corn and soybeans stuck to the $7 and $14 per bushel marks, respectively.
The Rosario Grains Exchange yesterday cut their 2022/23 Argentine wheat production estimate by half a million tonnes, to 16.0 MMT due to drought and cold temps; the Buenos Aires Exchange also reduced their estimate for the crop yesterday, from 17.5 to 16.5 MMT. The ‘21/22 crop was 23 MMT.
The Czech Statistics Bureau estimated the country’s 2022 grain harvest at 7.56 MMT, up from 7.4 MMT in July and 7.22 MMT last year; wheat made up 5.18 MMT of that, up from 5.07 MMT in July and 4.96 MMT in 2021.
FranceAgriMer reported the French corn harvest at 83% complete as of 10/10, up from 67% in the week prior and just 14% on the comparable date last season. Soft wheat plantings hit 21% this week, well ahead of 3% a week ago.
Mpls wheat –4
KC wheat -8
Chic wheat -10
Matif wheat -3
Soybean oil -17