Wheat markets trade lower to end the week
Wheat finished the week lower on Friday as exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports continue despite Russia’s mobilisation of an extra 300k troops.
CBOT(Z) finished -30.25c for the day however for the week still finished in the black +20.75c with ample risk premium priced in earlier in the week.
The AUD and CAD continues to get pummelled by a booming USD and currently sits at a 2 year lows
In cash markets, Philippines PAFMI were heard to have booked 1 45k ASW/FW cargo in the mid $350s for a Jan shipment.
In what could be a blow to the grain corridor, Russia bombed the port city of Odessa for the 2nd time in a week which damaged buildings near the grain terminals, but there was no damage to the grain terminals
Despite the ongoing conflict, Russia could harvest a record 100mmt this season, although the wheat is expected to pile up due to sanction induced reduced access to export markets.
U.S. dollar/economic/outside market headwinds have arguably never been stronger, with U.S. farmers primed to fire up harvest and bring new crop supplies to a tight cash market.
This extended run of a strong USD will help ration off some export demand and loosen up the S&D table a bit
Taiwan millers are seeking 52k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat this week, in a range of different types for November shipment.
South Korea’s NOFI bought an estimated 135k tonnes of corn in their international tender closing this morning, for late January 2023 arrival.
Pakistan is seeking 300k tonnes of wheat in a tender closing today, though they only got one participant with a low offer coming in at $399/tonne C&F
The U.N. issued an international tender for 100k tonnes of milling wheat, for donations to countries in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, for Oct-Nov.
SovEcon estimated Russian September grain exports at 4.75 MMT, up from 4.20 MMT in August, with wheat at 4.3 MMT vs 3.5 MMT last month.
Private analysts APK-Inform on Saturday raised their 2022 Ukraine grain production estimate from 52.5-55.4 to 54.1-55.7 MMT, including 19 MM of wheat, 30 MM of corn, and 5.5 MMT of barley. ‘22/23 (July-June) grain exports were pegged at 22.6 to 38.8 MMT depending on the logistics situation, including anywhere from 6.5 to 12.0 MMT of wheat exports this season.
Mpls wheat –4
KC wheat -4
Chic wheat -7
Matif wheat -2
Canola -2
Rapeseed -16
Soybeans -2
Soybean oil -66
Crude +79
Corn -4
CAD -19