Wheat markets sharply lower yesterday on technical selling in unison with Matif close down 11 Euros/mt
Matif responded to reports of cash wheat trading in Ukraine for a low as 270/mt (40 to 50/mt below Russian and EU offers) as producers were hitting any bid they could find to generate cash flow and traders clearing inventory for new crop that is flowing in
Another headline fueling the sell off was talks of improving the current flow of grain from the Black Sea
Overnight grain volume slowed to a crawl with soybeans leading losses, while corn is stuck technically
The USD is making a charge back towards month ago highs as well, putting pressure on the commodities overall.
Wheat is rebounding a bit this morning but it seems to be a half hearted effort with values at post-war, or 10+ month continuous, lows.
Ukraine’s grain union UGA reported the country’s 2022 wheat harvest at 91% complete, or 17.4 MMT, with the total grain harvest at 25.7 MMT.
The country’s Ag Ministry reported cumulative grain exports at 2.99 MMT so far in 2022/23, July-June, down 52% from last year’s pace. Final 2021/22 exports wound up at 48.5 MMT, up 8.5% year over year thanks to strong prewar shipments.
The government currently has overall grain production pegged at around 50 MMT in 2022, down from a record 86 MMT in 2021.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange pegged the 2021/22 Argentine corn crop at 52 MMT, up from 49 MMT just last week thanks to increased acreage figures; 98% of the corn crop was reported as harvested.
France AgriMer reported French corn condition ratings at 50% good/excellent as of 8/15, down from 53% the previous week and 91% a year ago.
The International Grains Council yesterday cut their 2022/23 world corn production estimate by ten million tonnes, to 1.179 billion tonnes, due to reduced forecasts for the U.S. and E.U.
Global wheat output rose by 8 MMT this month, to 778 million tonnes.
Mpls wheat +3
KC wheat +7
Chic wheat +5
Matif wheat +1
Soybean oil -24