Wheat markets ended the week lower on lack of Black Sea war headlines and US farmer selling the rallies on all classes, especially SRW
North American cash prices are still significantly higher than Russia, either US futures need more loses or Russian cash increases, but the spread is just too big for North American wheat to make any inroads in the world market
Wheat volatility continues with talk of lower Canada, US, Russia and Argentina wheat crops and lower EU quality.
Putin said reduced Ukraine exports is adding value to Russia exports.
Overnight grain volume was strong as the direction was clearly lower, with the most traded contracts contending with (and failing at) technical support on the charts.
Condition ratings will expected to decline this afternoon but the next two weeks look much more beneficial for crop development
Algeria tendered for a nominal 50k tonnes of optional origin soft milling wheat for October shipment, closing tomorrow morning.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported July grain exports at 2.16 MMT, up from 1.61 MMT in July 2022, and including 1.11 MMT of corn, 758k tonnes of wheat, and 285k tonnes of barley.
Private analysts Safras & Mercado on Friday estimated Brazilian 2024 soybean exports at 99 MMT, up from 95 MMT in 2023, with crushing seen up from 53.4 to 55.0 MMT next calendar year.
Mpls wheat -16
KC wheat -15
Chic wheat -20
Matif wheat -4
Canola -19
Rapeseed -12
Soybeans -29
Soybean oil -172
Crude +102
Corn -14
CAD +20