Wheat markets continue to trade headlines but the one clear fundamental that continues to drive the market, is cheap Russian FOB values that are seeing importers buying Russian wheat regardless of the stigmas attached. So in the wheat world price is king, nothing else matters.
Double digit losses for US wheat futures ahead of today’s WASDE saw the CBOT reach it’s lowest level in more than 2 months following a volatile few weeks.
Matif also came under selling pressure reaching €330/mt on the Dec contract, nearly a 2 month low.
Market pundits will be looking closely at any changes the USDA makes on this month’s WASDE to Ukraine/Russian export estimates, as well as production revisions to Australia and Argentina. Corn and Soybeans aren’t expecting any major yield adjustments this late in harvest.
Negotiations over the extension of the Ukraine grain corridor are underway with Turkey proposing a 1 year extension from the current expiration date of November 19, as well as more ports. Ukraine has reportedly written assurances to Russia through Turkey.
More important is possibility of a large Russia Bank sanctions being dropped. This to increase Russia grain and fertilizer exports. Russia wheat export prices are already World’s lowest. This would be negative wheat futures.
The forecast for Australia’s waterlogged eastern crops shows rains coming Friday/weekend for large parts of VIC and NSW.
Corn took the major share of moderate overnight trade volume heading into the key fundamental November S&D Report later this morning
Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65k tonnes of Brazilian feed corn in an international tender this morning, with all eight offers submitted coming from Brazil.
Algeria reportedly bought around 480k tonnes of milling wheat in their international tender closing yesterday, up from previous 400k estimates, and re-ported at $367-369/tonne C&F for December shipment; traders think the majority will be sourced from Russia, though some from France is likely. Offers were lower than expected.
European Commission data showed cumulative soft wheat exports since July 1 at 12.52 MMT, up from 11.92 MMT through 11/6 last year; corn imports of 10.18 MMT continue to run well ahead of last season’s 4.64 MMT pace.
Markets continue to trade headlines but the one clear fundamental that continues to drive the market is cheap Russian FOB values that are seeing importers buying Russian wheat regardless of the stigmas attached. So in the wheat market price is king, nothing else matters.
Mpls wheat -1
KC wheat -2
Chic wheat -3
Matif wheat +1
Soybean oil -17