Wheat futures traded slightly lower yesterday on what must have been some profit taking as prospects for the winter wheat crop remain bleak with a dry 2 weeks ahead following the G/E rating of only 28%.
Agricultural commodities lower across the board as forecasts for temperatures to surge across the North American midsection next week would lead to a favorable jump in planting progress. While this is good news for Midwest corn and soybean growers, it’s more of the same for the drought stricken US southern plains. A rapid temperature rise could also prompt flooding across the Northern plains as the current snow pack melts.
Higher production estimates for Brazil are also contributing to today’s softer tone.
No export announcements today.
Argentina has pushed back details of their preferred currency plan to stimulate soybean exports until Wednesday.
The Russian ruble is at all time low, this could be reflecting lower economy but will cheapen up ag exports substantially
Despite being hampered by Western sanctions, Russia exported a record 4.5MMT over the month of March vs only 2.1MMT this time LY.
EU prices have been firming with 11.5 cargoes offered CFR Indo at USD325/mt for May/June shipments. ASW9 comparatively is around low $320s and APW1 low $330s for June shipments. In containers, Moldova 11.5pro has been cheapest in to Asia for a few weeks now with prices around $310/mt for June/July vs ASW9 sub $330
Jordan made no purchased in their tender for 120k tonnes of milling wheat yesterday, despite receiving offers from seven different trading firms this time around; they are expected to reissue another similar tender later this week. They also have a tender out for 120k tonnes of barley, receiving offers from five companies so far as of this morning.
Japan is seeking 60k tonnes of feed wheat and 20k tonnes of feed barley in an SBS tender next week, for September arrival.
Poland’s Ag Minister resigned today, citing the European Commission’s decision to extended duty free imports for Ukrainian grain through 2023/24, against local farmers’ wishes for import taxes. Large volumes of Ukrainian grain have wound up there since the start of the war, affecting local prices. The timing is interesting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy visiting the country today to meet with leaders and galvanize support for the war.
The Rosario stock exchange yesterday estimated 2022/23 soybean meal production at 27 MMT, down 36% year over year, with exports at 20 MMT; that would be down from Brazil’s 21-23 MMT estimated total. Argentine meal shipments hit 23.5 MMT in 2021/22, down 13% from the previous season.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported cumulative grain exports at 38.5 MMT through today, down from 45.1 MMT on the comparable date last year, and including 13.2 MMT of wheat, 22.7 MMT of corn, and 2.29 MMT of barley.
A USDA attaché in Cairo estimated Egypt’s 2023/24 (July-June) wheat imports at 10.8 MMT, up almost 3% from the current season’s 10.5 MMT; that total is the second lowest in the last decade, behind 10.15 MMT in ‘13/14.
Mpls wheat -14
KC wheat -16
Chic wheat -12
Matif wheat -2
Canola -10
Rapeseed -18
Soybeans -6
Soybean oil -46
Crude -9
Corn -6
CAD +6