Wheat futures retreat yesterday with Russian troops

Wheat futures retreat yesterday with Russian troops
After claims from Russia yesterday that military forces had been partially withdrawn from the border with Ukraine, wheat futures came under pressure with double digit losses in response. The US President warned that an invasion is still very possible with their own analysts yet to verify the withdrawal. Boris Johnson accused Russia of sending mixed signals on Ukraine.
After weeks of stagnant price action, Australian wheat prices surged following Friday’s CBOT action. ASX made a new monthly high with March trading up to $368/mt. APW FOB ex WA for June/July rallied $10 over the past week to USD355/mt. Feed wheat markets also rallied with trades CFR Vietnam from early last week in the low to mid $320s rallying to bids mid $330s.
Russia’s blockade of the Black and Azov seas for Ukraine under the guise of ‘military drills’ has successfully been circumnavigated by a cargo ship MV Melia after Ukraine’s Ministry of Infrastructure found deep water routes closer to Ukraine’s shoreline.

Grains recovered overnight after Tuesday’s losses
Private consultancy Agroconsult yesterday estimated 2021/22 Brazilian soybean production at 125.8 MMT after a crop tour, down 8.4 MMT projected before the tour, with yields pegged at a six year low of 51.7 60 kilogram bags per hectare, or 41.6 bushels per acre.
European Commission data yesterday showed cumulative soft wheat exports since July 1 at 17.27 MMT, up from 16.87 MMT over the same span last sea-son, with corn imports up 10.12 MMT down from 10.46 MMT last year.
January NOPA soybean crush came in at 182.2 million bushels yesterday, well below the average 186.7 mbu trade expectation, and down from December’s 186.4 mbu (the record crush for any single month), and 184.7 mbu last January. Trade estimates ranged from 183.7-188.5 million bushels.
Bayer informed its retail partners that they may not be able to fulfill some glyphosate contracts due to a supply issue involving a key raw material. An undisclosed supplier experienced a manufacturing problem and repairs are expected to take around three months.
Farmland values continued to increase through the end of 2021 according to surveys conducted by the Kansas City and Chicago Federal Reserve banks. The results from the Kansas City district showed values for all types of farm land 20% higher than one year ago and the Chicago district 22% higher. More than 50% of respondents expected farmland values to increase in 2022.
MGEX Spring Wheat stocks are 8.9% lower than a year ago according to the exchange’s weekly report.
Ukraine farmers planted 7.7 million hectares (19.0 million acres) of winter crops, up 5% year over year.
Poultry farms are on high alert and taking steps to increase biosecurity after a commercial turkey flock in Indiana was infected with bird flu on February 9. The flock of 29,000 were killed to prevent spread of the disease.
Russia analyst SovEcon pegged the ‘22/23 Russian wheat crop at 84.8 MMT.

Mpls wheat -2
KC wheat +1
Chic wheat +1
Matif wheat -3
Canola +6
Rapeseed +13
Soybeans +12
Soybean oil +37
Crude +140
Corn +2
CAD +30