Wheat futures rallied on Friday following a statement from the Russian Agriculture Ministry stating they may recommend curbing exports of wheat and sunflower seeds following a sharp drop in global prices. However another story out later explained that the Russian government has no plans to ban wheat exports but will work with exporters so that farmers get paid enough to cover costs.
Fundamentals are still bearish but geopolitical headlines spooked the Fund shorts and covered up for the weekend.
India’s wheat crop last week was inundated with heavy rains over several days which could impact quality/yield on an already shrinking crop due to severe drought over the growing season.
The CFTC’s COT report showed funds had bought back some wheat contracts in the week ending 21 March. The overall net short has come in from -100k to now -86.5k. Reports are now up to date for the first time in 8 weeks.
CFR offers were lower again on Friday before Russia’s announcement of possible export cuts.
APW was reportedly offered CFR for July shipment at $325, ASW1 at $315 and H2 mid to high $340s.
The soy complex is rebounding this morning while front end corn contracts take some profits
Fundamental news is slow to start the week as the trade has almost the entire week to wait for the key March 31 plantings and stocks reports.
We’re in transition weather wise as well, though some dryness concerns linger for Brazil’s second crop corn growing season, and domestic forecasts continue to point towards a slow start for the U.S. 2023 row crop campaign. Regardless, the flow of speculative money will have to do a 180 for any near term, sustained rally in the grain complex
A Farm Futures magazine survey of 800 producers, conducted via email from March 4-14, estimated 2023 U.S. corn plantings at 87.7 million acres, down from 88.6 mln ac last year, with soybeans at 89.6 mln ac, up from 87.45 mln ac last year. All wheat plantings were seen at 45.7 mln ac, in line with 2022.
Private analysts Coceral Friday raised their 2023 E.U. soft wheat production estimate (including the U.K.) from 143.3 to 144.5 MMT, with rapeseed up from 20.4 to 21.1 MMT as well, though corn was cut from 64.5 to 62.3 MMT.
Mpls wheat +0
KC wheat -6
Chic wheat -4
Matif wheat -3
Soybean oil +37