Wheat futures are higher following Ukraine drone strikes on key Russia grain export port of Novorossiysk. Let’s see if the trend continues, higher on the overnight on war news, lower on the close as cooler heads prevail
Wheat made new lows on Thursday on talk that Romania would allow for Ukraine vessel loadout that would help clean up Ukraine vessel line up.
Informa continues to estimate US wheat crop near 1,712 mil bu vs USDA 1,739.
Overall wheat volatility remains high given Black Sea off and on tension and weather.
Mpls Dec has dropped from a high of 956 on July 25 to a low of 847 yesterday and is now 861, see line above
The bulls need Black Sea concerns to sustain any type of rally amid bearish U.S. weather conditions, and they got that GIFT again overnight as Ukraine drones hit a Russian military ship in the Novorossiysk port, a major hub for Russian grain exports.
Unlike Ukrainian shipments, Russian wheat and grains have been flowing freely during the war and they continue to set the baseline for the global wheat export market. Very important to not forget this, many just want to see bullish news, re-read first line if in doubt.
Wheat is moving off lows, while Dec corn has put in seven straight lower lows but only matched yesterday’s bottom so far today, with Chic Dec bouncing back above $5
Algeria bought 40k tonnes of corn from either Argentina or Brazil this morning, in their tender for up to 120k, at $239-240/t C&F for Aug shipment.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported the country’s grain harvest at 16.57 MMT, including 3.755 MMT of barley and 12.5 MMT of wheat thus far.
The French Farm Ministry raised their 2023 soft wheat production estimate from 35.0 to 35.6 MMT due to increased yields, now 5.6% above last year; corn output came in at 10.89 MMT in the Ministry’s first official estimate of 2023, up 2% from last season. Corn yields are seen more than making up for a 10% year over year acreage loss, though production is still 16% below the 5YA. Meanwhile, FranceAgriMer pegged the soft wheat harvest at 87% complete as of 7/31, up from 83% a week ago, with corn condition ratings at 81% good/excellent, steady from the previous week.
Mexican officials yesterday said the U.S. denied their request for joint scientific GMO research, still disagreeing with Mexico’s proposed eventual ban on GMO corn. Mexico’s Ag Minister says between 10% and 15% of their corn imports could be substituted by domestic production by 2024.
China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Friday it would drop anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Australian barley imports that had been in place for three years affecting billions of dollars of trade, as the two nations repair strained ties.
China and Australia agreed in April to resolve their dispute over barley imports, with Canberra to suspend a case at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Beijing’s anti-dumping and countervailing duties on barley, while China promised to speed up a review into the tariffs.