Wheat finishes higher yesterday on Black Sea headlines
Wheat futures surged yesterday following comments from Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister that vessel inspections under the grain corridor deal had once again been suspended with Russia registering only one incoming ship in the last two days of May, without explanation, and 50 vessels are awaiting inspection in Turkish waters. While it has provided a bump, the effect was muted by the market’s anticipation of ongoing issues with the corridor.
Saudi is in for 480k MW for Sep/Oct shipment which is expected to be won by Romanian/Russian exporters.
Black Sea 11.5 offers were ranging from $260-267 CFR Vietnam for Aug shipment period.
ASW1 offers ranged from $280-285/mt CFR SEA ports.
Lack of demand for US export, lower Russia prices and higher EU supplies offers resistance.
Wet US HRW and China raising concern about quality. Some estimate that 30 mmt of China 137 mmt crop will be feed quality.
Questions about Russia, Canada, US and China crops offers some support.
This coming weekend will present another chance for the US Midwest forecasts to finally roll over, with concrete rain chances across the belt yet to arrive. Scattered rains are aiding corn and soybeans for now, and temperatures look to moderate into mid June also.
FranceAgriMer reported a two point decline in French soft wheat ratings this week, to 91% good/excellent, due to continued dry weather; that remains above 67% a year ago and tied with 2015 for the highest rating at this point in the season in over a decade. Corn planting stands at 98% complete, with ratings there down two points week-over-week as well, to 92% g/ex.
StoneX Brazil yesterday raised their 2022/23 Brazilian corn production estimate from 131.6 to 133.75 MMT, with second crop output up from 100.8 to 102.9 MMT due to stronger yields and increased output in Mato Grosso.
Brazil’s government reported May soybean exports at 15.61 MMT, up from 10.64 MMT a year ago, with corn at 385k tonnes vs 1.09 MMT last May.
Mpls wheat +0
KC wheat -4
Chic wheat -1
Matif wheat +1
Soybean oil +43