US wheat rallies on continuing HRW drought
US wheat futures hit breaking on Friday night and rallied 4% on the July KC contract, taking back all of the 3 previous sessions losses. Mpls July finish +26.75c and Chic July +15.50c.
Kansas, which accounts for 25% of US winter wheat production is currently suffering drought/dry conditions in 88% of the state. Across the US, around 49% of winter wheat cropping areas are experiencing drought.
Hungary has joined Poland in banning duty free agricultural imports from Ukraine following protests by farmers who stated it was undercutting their own industry.
The UN has written to Russia, Ukraine and Turkey raising concerns over the implementation of the grain corridor with inbound vessel inspections becoming less efficient.
Wheat futures are lower led by KC and MLS. Could be some profit taking on long KC vs short Chicago.
There were some rains in E KS. Western US HRW crop areas are still dry.
EU refused Poland and Hungary ban on Ukraine grain imports.
Large EU and Russia supply offers resistance to World wheat prices.
There remains plenty of time to plant, even with colder outlooks now through the month of April.
The wheat market seems a bit tired of the Black Sea grain deal rhetoric, but plenty of issues remain here in the U.S. with the winter crop in rough shape and spring wheat planting prospects off to a slow start, eut Every year we are surprised on how fast the farmer can put the crop in.
Russia is blocking inspections of ships in Turkish waters, under the Black Sea grain export deal, causing Ukraine officials to say the agreement is “at risk of being shut down”; Ukraine is looking to re-open grain movement through Poland after some neighboring countries (including Hungary and potentially Slovakia as well) have banned imports to protect their local markets.
Egypt has started offering corn on the country’s new commodities exchange, after the GASC has sold nearly 570k tonnes of wheat to local miller as well, since the launch of the exchange in November. Egypt’s GASC is also seeking vegetable oils in a tender closing Wednesday, for May-June arrival.
Mpls wheat -4
KC wheat -5
Chic wheat +3
Matif wheat +3
Soybean oil +58