US wheat futures traded either side but finished in the red following April’s WASDE report which had higher US wheat ending stocks and lower world wheat ending stocks.
US wheat 2022/23 ending stocks came in higher than anticipated at 0.598bbu which was above the trade estimate and the March report figure of 0.568bbu.
World wheat ending stocks were decreased 2.15MMT to 265.05MMT which was below trade estimates.
The drain on world stocks was mostly due to an increase to China’s FW usage of 2MMT.
Russian wheat exports for April are estimated to come in between 4.2-4.5MMT, which is up over 80% y/y.
Yesterday’s news of a resolution between Australia and China over China’s 80% barley tariff is a buoy for exporters, a trade flow worth up to 1.5B each year. China will conduct an expedited review over the next 3 months.
Wheat accounted for a surprising share of an otherwise low volume overnight session, chopping higher through the morning hours with Russia continuing to complain about their end of the Black Sea bargain and attempt to pressure the other parties and the West in general.
Hot and dry weather should be kicking off corn planting throughout the Midwest.
Jordan bought 60k tonnes of optional origin hard milling wheat yesterday at just over $303/tonne C&F, for late September shipment; they issued another tender for up to 120k tonnes for Oct-Nov shipment, with a deadline of 4/18. Jordan made no purchase in their tender for up to 120k tonnes of feed barley.
South Korea’s NOFI bought around 60k tonnes of optional origin feed wheat this morning at $306/tonne C&F for late September arrival; the country’s millers bought 45k tonnes of U.S. wheat for June shipment as well.
Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of Argentine feed corn in an international tender this morning, for May-June shipment.
France’s Farm Ministry sees 2023 soft wheat planted area up almost 2% to 4.77 million hectares (11.8 million acres).
The Kremlin said the Black Sea grain deal “could not stand on one leg” and that the outlook for the agreement “is not good”, continuing to note obstacles for Russian agriculture and fertilizer exports. Meanwhile, Romanian farmers are threatening to begin a nationwide protest on June 7 unless the country bans Ukrainian grain imports and transit. UKR Railways has also suspended cargo transportation to Poland until further notice, including wheat & grains.
Argentina’s government has authorized the country’s exporters to delay soybean shipments for up to 60 days; that follows similar measures for corn (allowed to delay by 180 days, agreed in March) and wheat (allowed to delay late last year) as the country experiences historic drought. They’re hoping for increased sales under the new “soy dollar” policy, though soybean movement has still been slow so far this week.
Mpls wheat +7
KC wheat +10
Chic wheat +5
Matif wheat +1
Canola -7
Rapeseed -14
Soybeans -1
Soybean oil -57
Crude +65
Corn +1
CAD +9