US wheat futures finished last week in negative territory although was close to the top of the daily range and nowhere near the 5% selloff seen in corn futures. A wetter forecast for parts of the dry Midwest as well as profit taking were thought to be the main driving factors.
A brief military coup by PMC Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, over the weekend saw Wagner forces steamroll their way towards Moscow after taking Rostov with relative ease. A deal brokered by Belarus President Lukashenko has seen Prigozhin back down and divert his forces to Belarus.
The CFTC’s COT report showed funds buy back net +29k wheat contracts in the week ending 20 June, to now hold a -84k net short.
Corn was more pronounced with a change of +56k net contracts to hold a net long of +58k.
There remains uncertain by World buyers especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Morocco, E Africa and SE Asia (India) in confidence of Russia wheat exports.
Trade estimates US 2023 all wheat acres at 49.6 vs 49.8 in March.
Trade estimates June 1 wheat stocks at 611 mil bu vs 698 ly.
Corn and soybeans opened lower last night but the bulls were thrown a life raft by wheat, reacting to the weekend mutiny in Russia.
Rains didn’t save everyone over the weekend but should go a long way in the central and northern corn belt, and by most accounts the overall forecast trend appears to have shifted to a more beneficial pattern going forward.
Mexico on Friday imposed a 50% tariff on white corn imports, amid the ongoing North American trade dispute; they don’t import a lot of white corn, but what is bought comes from the U.S. or South Africa.
SovEcon is estimating June Russian grain exports at 3.8 MMT, down from 5.0 MMT in May, with wheat at 3.2 MMT versus 4.2 MMT last month.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry sees cumulative grain exports since July 1 at 48.4 MMT with the 2022/23 season almost complete, roughly even with last year’s pace; 2023 grain output was revised up from 45 to 46 MMT.
Mpls wheat +11
KC wheat +14
Chic wheat +14
Matif wheat +5
Soybean oil +93