US Thanksgiving tomorrow. US Markets will be closed on Thursday and only open until noon on Friday. Canola will remain open with regular trading hours.
Ukraine corn harvest is near 50 pct done with farmer opting to leave rest in the field
Dry US plains weather should support Chic March near 8.00 and low demand for US exports will limit upside near 8.50.
Season to date US wheat exports are down 2 pct vs ly.
EU wheat is moving into a west Florida mill. Landed EU wheat is $80 lower than US HRW price. US wheat futures still trending lower looking for new export demand. A US RR strike could weigh on basis.
Lower Russia wheat export prices still offers resistance to US wheat futures.
Canola is trading independently lower. Weakness remains largely driven by bearish technicals, which kept spec long busy trimming their length in the January contract.
March canola has lost nearly $50 US/tonne since Nov 10, which could help stimulate fresh global exporter interest, especially for those still in need of coverage ahead of Brazil’s soybean harvest.
Overnight volume actually picked up a bit, led by corn, though the spot December contract there just wound itself tighter into range-bound trade heading into the holiday.
Soybeans once again start out lower, though Jan beans have been resilient and ground out a couple straight higher highs and lows so far this week.
Wheat has the clearest path, as the Dec Chicago edition posted its lowest number in almost three months this morning.
Wheat continues to flow from the Black Sea region
Australia is selling more to China, and European wheat is in high demand as well, with traders rumoring Euro origin wheat penciling in to the U.S. east coast this week. No such export excitement is present for U.S. wheat supplies
Turkey issued an international tender for 455k tonnes of milling wheat, for Dec-Jan-Feb shipment.
Ukraine’s government sees 2022 grain production falling to 51 MMT, down from a record 86 MMT in 2021, with 39 MMT harvested thus far.
China will auction off another 40k tonnes of wheat from state reserves a week from today (11/30).
European Commission data showed cumulative soft wheat exports from July 1 through November 20 at 13.63 MMT, up from 13.09 MMT last year; corn imports of 11.54 MMT are running well ahead of last year’s 5.09 MMT pace.
The incoming Brazilian Presidential administration will look to revoke a mandatory 10% biodiesel blend over the first three months of calendar 2023, imposed by current President Bolsonaro due to a shorter 2022 soybean crop; the country’s biodiesel industry is seeking a 14% mandate in January and February, followed by 15% in March.
Brazilian grain exporting association Anec yesterday estimated that calendar 2023 corn exports could hit the 40-50 MMT range, compared to 41 MMT this year, with as much as 5 MMT of that going to China.
Mpls wheat -1
KC wheat -5
Chic wheat -5
Matif wheat -4
Soybean oil -54