2 sided trade for global wheat futures on Friday saw US wheat futures finish higher across the board with CBOT(K) +11.50c/bu despite EU/Black Sea futures finishing lower with Matif(K) -€3.00/mt.
GASC booked 2 x cargoes of 60k Ukraine wheat at a price of USD298.72/mt CFR.
Prices into SEA for were indicated at $330s for EU/BS 12.5MW origin.
Australian wheat came off last week as well with ASW low $310s, APW high $330s and H2 around low $350s for June/July shipments.
Chinese President Xi will travel to Moscow on today. There is expected to be discussions of a trade agreement between Russia, China, and Brazil. If true it could continue to drop US share of global export trade. Upon return home, President Xi will then meet with Brazilian President Lula in Beijing. Xi and Ukrainian President Zelensky will speak via video link this week, their first conversation since the onset of the war.
The story on Friday and over the weekend in China is a new outbreak of ASF in China. For now, most all in China are downplaying the story as it may be only affecting at a maximum 10% of the herd. China is in a much better position to handle outbreaks versus in the past. It would seem ASF in China is akin to the coronavirus, it may have lessened but will always be with us. But a story to monitor none the less.
Wheat dominated the headlines over the weekend but soybeans led overnight volume with losses heavy up through the deferred months
The grains and commodities are mostly out of favor with the speculative traders as of late, particularly this week with the March FOMC on tap.
Taiwan millers tendered for 56k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat, with a deadline set for Friday and a range of different types sought.
The Black Sea grain export deal was extended over the weekend following its expiration on Saturday, but the two sides could not agree on the length of the extension. Ukraine said the agreement was extended for 120 days as originally scheduled, but Russia only consented to a 60 day extension, and Russian officials this morning claimed that the other parties “have expressed no formal objections” to the shorter time frame. The drama continues, so at the moment wheat is down 8 on the renewal.
Chinese customs showed cumulative soybean imports from the U.S. at 11.59 MMT in Jan-Feb, up over 15% from last year’s 10.04 MMT pace; soybean imports from Brazil fell 36% YoY to 2.24 MMT. Total soybean imports hit a record 16.2 MMT over the first two months of the calendar year. Corn imports from the U.S. rose 22% to 2.35 MMT in Jan-Feb, while imports from Ukraine fell 56% to 1.18 MMT, and imports from Brazil hit 1.48 MMT, the first since China authorized corn shipments from the country last year.
China sold 137k tonnes of wheat from state reserves this week, or 97% of the total offered this time around.
Ukraine’s Ag Minister estimated 2023 combined grain and oilseed production at 63 MMT, down from 70 MMT in 2022.
Chinese customs reported cumulative Jan-Feb corn imports at 5.33 MMT, up just over 13% from last year’s pace, with wheat imports at 3.02 MMT, up over 38% from the first two months of 2022.
Mpls wheat -7
KC wheat -8
Chic wheat -8
Matif wheat -4
Soybean oil -43