The grains put in an impressive recovery into the late night hours last night on another Russian attack on Ukraine’s key grain port, but just as quickly and impressively wiped out those gains this morning with corn and wheat up against technical resistance and facing an extremely bearish U.S. weather outlook in the coming days and weeks.
Russia again struck Ukraine’s inland port on the Danube River this morning, damaging a grain silo on Ukraine’s main alternative route for grain exports without the Black Sea deal. The port is just across the river from NATO member Romania.
Meanwhile, officials in the Kremlin today restated their position that Russia would return to the Black Sea deal “immediately” when their “interests are upheld”, meaning all restrictions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports are cleared, including payments, logistics, and insurance.
Egypt’s GASC is seeking wheat in an international tender today for Sept-Oct delivery; their lowest offer came in at $250/tonne C&F from Russia.
Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65k tonnes of Brazilian corn in their international tender this morning, for October shipment,
Kazakhstan’s grain union estimates their 2023 wheat production at 14.5 MMT, down from 16.4 MMT last season, with exports seen at 8.5-9.0 MMT for the 2023/24 season.
StoneX Brazil yesterday raised their 2022/23 second crop corn production estimate from 105.2 to 108.3 MMT due to widespread yield increases. Total ‘22/23 corn output rose from 136.0 to 139.2 MMT, including a small rise in third crop production as well. Initial production estimates see basically steady corn output next year (2023/24) at 139.3 MMT, with first crop output up slightly year over year to 28.6 MMT.
‘23/24 soybean production was initially pegged at 163.5 MMT, up almost 4% from the previous season due to small gains in both planted acreage and yields seen in the coming year.
Mpls wheat +6
KC wheat +8
Chic wheat +10
Matif wheat +4
Soybean oil -63