Some New Concern About Persistent Dryness…

No deliveries against the March canola contract yesterday, open interest is unchanged at 3,283 contracts, volume light at 15 contracts in the Mar/May spread, down 5/mt to +25

Chic may wheat is trying to find support near 7.00, Kansas May 8.20.  Wheat futures are trying to correct an oversold tech picture with Managed funds near record short.  Talk of rain in east US HRW states offers resistance.  Iran bought Russia wheat also offers resistance.

Some new concern about persistent dryness in western Canada.  Also, in El Nino years Australia tends to have lower production.

Trade estimates US 2023/24 wheat carryout near 573 mil bu vs USDA 568.  Trade estimates World 2023/24 wheat carryout near 269 mmt vs 276 ly.


Canola was mixed overnight after yesterday saw New crop November trade up on higher overnight volume, likely overseas related tied to Tuesday’s month end price plunge and strength in allied markets

New crop demand interest carried over into the day session before thinning out during the latter half of the trade.

The market believes that canola strength should be met by better, more consistent commercial hedges as producers become more willing sellers of seed ahead of spring fieldwork/seeding


Overnight volume indicates that the grains are ready to limp into the end of the week, but soybeans and soybean meal remain the buoys, as feed grain demand suffers and the trade expects stocks increases there next Wednesday.

Taiwan’s MFIG issued an international tender for 65k tonnes of feed corn.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday said they “plan” to cut their 2022/23 Argentine soybean crop estimate for the fourth time, but did not give any exact figures; their estimate remains at 33.5 MMT, down from an initial 48.0 MMT projection and 43.3 MMT last year.  They also noted potential further cuts to corn output, currently at 41 MMT versus 50 MMT initially.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry “sees no need” to limit wheat exports in the 2023/24 (July-June) marketing year, with planted acreage seen larger than previously thought, and production expected in the 16-18 MMT range, down from 20.2 MMT last season.  The country has exported 11.3 MMT so far in 2022/23, down from a final 18.1 MMT figure in 2021/22.


Mpls wheat +2

KC wheat +5

Chic wheat +2

Matif wheat +1

Canola +3

Rapeseed +3

Soybeans +6

Soybean oil -36

Crude -52

Corn +3

CAD -14