Rally On Monday Was Short Lived…

The rally on Monday following the Russian missile attacks in Kyiv was short lived, as Tuesday’s markets corrected and sold off close to current support levels with WZ down -37c although still just above $9/bu.

Ukraine has now shipped out 6.85mmt through the grain corridor since its inception.  The backlog of ships (around 100 now) waiting to pass inspection at Istanbul has prompted the UN to call on Russia to ease their ‘full blown’ inspections to allow more ships to pass.  The UN is also currently negotiating for a possible extension on the agreement beyond November 19.

US exports out of Louisiana Gulf terminals are at their lowest level in 9 years due to very low water levels in the Mississippi halting barges.

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister has said the country is considering abolishing its grain export quota citing a large harvest removing the necessity to restrict exports.

Victoria and parts of southern NSW are in for a deluge of rain the next couple of days with new flood warnings issued for several areas on top of parts of central NSW already flooded.


The grains are consolidating ahead of the USDA October S&D later this morning, widely expecting carryout cuts for the feed grains and a stocks increase for soybeans following the September 30th results

Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65k tonnes of Brazilian corn for Dec-Jan shipment.

Algeria yesterday bought an estimated 480-510k tonnes of milling wheat in an international tender, at $380-385/tonne C&F for November shipment; the bulk of the purchase was thought to be sourced from Russia.

China’s Ag Min raised their ‘22/23 corn output estimate from 272.6 to 275.3 MMT, with acreage up from 42.5 to 42.95 mln ha (105.0 to 106.1 mln ac).

A USDA attaché in Buenos Aires estimated 2022/23 Argentine soybean pro-duction at 49 MMT, two million below the September WASDE estimate; ‘22/23 exports were pegged at 5.5 MMT, above the 4.7 MMT USDA Sept, with crush at 37.5 MMT, a full 3.5 MMT below the current USDA estimate.

European Commission data yesterday showed cumulative soft wheat exports since July 1 at 9.81 MMT, down from 10.02 MMT over the same span last year; corn imports of 7.88 MMT are up from last year’s 7.37 MMT pace.

Mpls wheat -6

KC wheat -8

Chic wheat -10

Matif wheat -2

Canola -2

Rapeseed -3

Soybeans -4

Soybean oil -43

Crude -157

Corn -3

CAD +3