Poland And Ukraine Have Worked Out A Deal…

Poland and Ukraine have worked out a deal to allow sealed transits of Ukraine grain through Poland.

Russia’s Prime Minister Lavrov will meet with the UN chief next week on and extension of the Black Sea corridor agreement.


While CBOT held steady overnight, both KC and MGEX were marginally lower after impressive rallies the past few days.

Matif extended its gains to a 3rd consecutive session due to uncertainty over the grain corridor as passage for ships carrying Ukraine grain remained suspended for the 2nd day.

Asian consumers remain hand to mouth with feed consumers switching more and more to corn as the discount to wheat grows.


Wheat is continuing to see long liquidation and may be some new selling.

US 8-10 day weather forecast keeps adding needed moisture into US south plains especially KS and NE while SW part of US HRW acres should remain dry.

There is talk that HRW crop could be down 50-75 mil bu from early estimates.

US flour makers continue to talk about blending HRS and SRW to replace lower HRW supply

Lower Russia export prices continue to offer resistance to US futures.

World 2023/24 Major exporter wheat stocks to use ratio could drop to a new recent low near 12% vs 2009/10 high was near 23%


Spec money is flowing out of the grain complex this morning with the trade continuing to weigh the Black Sea situation

It is just another day as Ukraine reports the resumption of exports from its ports while Russian officials accuse Ukraine of sabotaging the deal by bribing ship owners

As the news hits the headlines, the Funds offer the market down until there are limited bids

Jordan bought 50k tonnes of optional origin hard milling wheat in an international tender yesterday morning, at $303/tonne C&F for late Oct shipment; they issued another international tender for up to 120k tonnes of optional origin milling wheat for Oct-Nov, and they have three companies taking part in their tender for up to 120k tonnes of feed barley as well.

South Korea’s NOFI bought 60k tonnes of South American soybean meal this morning at $554/tonne C&F for June-July shipment.

SovEcon yesterday raised their 2023 Russian wheat production estimate, from 85.3 last month to 86.8 MMT currently.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry is estimating 2023 grain production at 50 MMT given favorable weather, down from 53.0 MMT in 2022 due to reduced plantings; that compares to a record 86 MMT harvest in 2021.

The Czech Republic estimated that the country has 40% more grain in stock than a year ago, or 2.6 MMT, with Ukrainian exports replacing Czech supplies in some markets.  Wheat stocks stand at 1.6 MMT, vs 1 MMT last year.

German farm cooperatives are estimating the country’s 2023 wheat crop at 22.15 MMT, up from 22.01 MMT in March but still down 1.6% YoY.


Mpls wheat -9

KC wheat -14

Chic wheat -10

Matif wheat -6

Canola -2

Rapeseed -9

Soybeans -5

Soybean oil -51

Crude -131

Corn -4

CAD -22