Further Weakness Seen Across Wheat Markets…

Further weakness seen across wheat markets

Wheat markets fell for their 2nd consecutive session, erasing part of the war risk premiums that flowed into markets following the collapse of the grain deal and subsequent attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure.  The open last night has fallen another -10c with no real news behind it.

At the NATO/Ukraine council held on Wednesday it was agreed that NATO will increase surveillance of the Black Sea with both maritime and drone patrols.

Putin has promised 25-50k of free wheat to 6 African countries at the ongoing Russian/African summit being held in St Petersburg.

Russian 12.5 FOB prices have dropped from $255 offers to $245 offers the past few days with bids around $240.

On a CFR basis, Bulg/Rom 11.5 offers are down from $310 to high $290s levels.


Trade is trading headlines that Ukraine exports will flow east.  Still no word on how and who will pay for additional transportation cost.

Funds are adding to net short futures position.

Recent attacks have damaged 26 Ukraine port facilities and 5 civilian vessels.

India reduced wheat crop to 108 mmt vs USDA 113, there were no news on lowering import tax or importing wheat.

Trade trying to deal with Black Sea supply and export unknown, 6 month lows in prices and wheat option volatility above normal levels. World wheat supply is dropping but so is demand


South Korea’s NOFI bought 68k tonnes of corn in an international tender for up to 138k tonnes, from South America or South Africa, for Oct shipment.

Iran’s SLAL reportedly rejected all offers and made no purchase in their international tender for 120k tonnes each of Brazilian corn and meal, for Aug-Sept

FranceAgriMer reported the French soft wheat harvest at 83% complete this week, up from 59% a week ago, with ratings down 2% to 78% g/ex.

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported over 96% of the Argentine wheat crop planted, with 72% of that planted under “good and optimal conditions” thanks to improved rains as of late. Corn stands at 68% harvested.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported the country’s grain harvest at 11.2 MMT thus far, including 8.1 MMT of wheat and 2.9 MMT of barley.

The European Commission cut their 2023 soft wheat estimate by 2.5 MMT, to 126.4 MMT, with ending stocks down from 20.5 to 17.4 MMT due to that output cut along with a carryin cut.  2023/24 exports were unchanged at 32.0 MMT.  2023 E.U. corn production fell from 63.7 to 63.0 MMT this month.

Day three of the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Tour found average North Dakota spring wheat yields at 47.4 bushels per acre, down from 49.1 bpa last year but above the 40.1 bpa five year average figure.  The USDA has North Dakota spring wheat at 47.0 bpa, down from 50.0 bpa last season.


Mpls wheat -14

KC wheat -17

Chic wheat -17

Matif wheat -5

Canola -11

Rapeseed -13

Soybeans -12

Soybean oil +24

Crude -5

Corn -11

CAD +7