Friday wheat markets bounce back from Thursday’s drop
Despite Thursday’s selloff, wheat markets bounced back on Friday and finished in the black with the CBOT (Z) contract +16.25c for the day and +34.25c for the week. Friday’s strength came from a weaker USD and a smaller corn yield figure from the Pro Farmer Tour at 168.1bpa than the USDA’s figure at 175.4bpa.
Strong French wheat exports lent strength to Matif wheat futures on Friday with demand usually not seen until October, filling up the stem. China was heard to have bought several pmx vessels within he last 2 weeks.
This month so far Ukraine has shipped 1mmt of grain/oilseeds from Odesa port (mostly corn) under the Export Corridor brokered by the UN. Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ministry previously stated August’s export number could hit 3-4mmt.
In cash markets, Aussie APW1 was stable around $400-405/mt CFR SEA for Jan/Feb shipment and ASW closer to $380/mt. Ukr11.5 remains aggressive in the $350s CFR SEA however buyers remain reluctant.
Pro Farmer obviously came out with even a more bullish corn yield estimate than was even expected, following some shaky results across the week during their crop tour
The trade will be very interested to see if private and public yield estimates follow suit in the next two weeks, starting with our StoneX September survey this Thursday.
So, wheat follows corn
Algeria tendered for a nominal 50k tonnes of optional origin soft milling wheat, with an offer deadline tomorrow, and shipment sought for Sept-Oct.
Bangladesh is looking to import 500k tonnes of wheat from Russia in a direct government-to-government deal, at $430/tonne C&F for shipment thru Jan.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported cumulative grain exports at 3.6 MMT since July 1, down 53% from last year’s pace, including 2.33 MMT of corn, 981k tonnes of wheat, and 289k tonnes of barley. August exports so far stand at 1.9 MMT, down almost 60% from last year’s pace.
Russian consultancy SovEcon estimates August grain exports at 4.20 MMT, up from 2.65 MMT in July, with wheat at 3.5 MMT vs 2.3 MMT last month.
Mpls wheat -1
KC wheat +1
Chic wheat +3
Matif wheat +2
Soybean oil -70