Corn is stuck in place with spot resistance at the $8/bushel mark, while wheat remains strong on real concern over spring seedings in the U.S.
Extended forecasts are worse to start this week, if anything. Planting windows are looking narrow after freezing lows today/tomorrow and cool/wet conditions into May.
Algeria has tendered for a nominal 50k tonnes of durum wheat.
Private analysts APK-Inform on Saturday raised their 2022/23 grain production estimate from 38.9 to 41.4 MMT, with wheat up from 14.9 to nearly 17.0 MMT (due to better winter yields), and corn unchanged at 18.5 MMT. They increased 2022/23 grain exports from 29.9 to 33.2 MMT as well (still below 45.5 MMT this season). Corn exports of 19.5 MMT would be down from 20.5 MMT LY, with wheat exports of 12.3 MMT down from 18.6 MMT in ‘21/22.
SovEcon estimated April Russian grain exports at 2.50 MMT, down from 2.65 MMT in March, with wheat at 2.1 MMT versus 2.2 MMT in March.
Tomorrow morning’s Statistics Canada planting intentions report is expected to show all wheat plantings at 24.15 million acres, up from 23.5 mln in 2021; canola acres are seen at 22.1 mln ac, down from 22.5 mln last year. Corn plantings of 3.4 mln ac would be down from 3.5 mln last season, with soybean acres of 5.5 mln ac marking a slight increase from 5.3 mln ac in 2021.
Soybean oil is leading a soy complex retreat this morning as Indonesia will only halt exports of bulk and packaged RBD palm olein, a higher value product that has been processed. Exports of crude palm oil and RBD palm oil will still be allowed, according to people familiar with the matter. This still remains fluid.
Mpls wheat +2
KC wheat +2
Chic wheat -1
Matif wheat +3
Soybean oil -155