Category Archives: Uncategorized

AB Drop In Canola Production Month Over Month…

Note AB drop in canola production month over month

But again for this report, no one believes the StatsCan canola number, canola down 4.6 ten minutes after the report

Note:  Analysts and traders surveyed by Reuters on average estimated production at 34.5 mln tonnes of all wheat, 6.2 mln tonnes of durum wheat, 19.9 mln tonnes of canola, 4.5 mln tonnes of oats, and 9.6 mln tonnes of barley

Wheat futures are adding to prices amid concern about US 2023 HRW crop weather is dry and the potential closing of the Ukraine export corridor.

US export prices are higher than Russia but so far, Russia wheat exports to date are slower than needed to reach USDA goal.

India has banned wheat, flour and rice exports.

 

Soybeans continue to drive what there is for overnight trade volume, hanging in there after punching through $15 for 2 1/2-month highs yesterday

Corn and wheat remain on edge near recent move highs as well.

Transportation issues are now at the forefront post-USDA, that might go double for fertilizer, not just grain.  With the trade watching U.S. rail development closely, and Putin continuing to criticize Ukraine grain shipments while the U.N. tries to broker a deal for Russia ammonia exports through Ukraine.

Taiwan bought 65k tonnes of corn from Brazil in an international tender closing this morning, for November-December shipment.

Sources reported that multiple U.S. railroads will halt shipments of crops or fertilizers today, a day ahead the potential railway strike; railroads have until a minute after midnight on Friday to reach a deal with 60,000 union workers.  The US government is “looking into it”, still holding the ability to avert a strike; there is also reports from the Union side that the two sides are “not that far apart” in their negotiations over pay and attendance policies.

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported 1.5 MMT of grain exports from Sept 1-13, down 34% from the same period last year; cumulative exports since July 1 stand at 5.8 MMT, down from 10.9 MMT in the same period in ‘21/22.  That includes 3.4 MMT of corn, 1.83 MMT of wheat, and 525k tonnes of barley.

FranceAgriMer this morning cut their estimate for 2022/23 (July-June) French soft wheat exports outside the European Union, from 10.3 MMT to 10.0 MMT, still up from 8.79 MMT in ‘21/22. Exports inside the Union rose slightly, from 7.02 to 7.13 MMT.  The firm has yet to estimate production for the drought-stricken 2022/23 corn crop, but they did cut ‘21/22 ending corn stocks from 2.62 to 2.23 million tonnes this month.

Brazilian grain exporting agency Anec estimated September soybean exports at 4.471 MMT, up from 3.916 MMT last week, with corn exports at 7.880 MMT, up from 6.310 MMT previously. Soybean meal exports of 2.115 MMT for September are up from 2.048 MMT estimated previously.

 

Mpls wheat unch

KC wheat -1

Chic wheat -6

Matif wheat -1

Canola -2

Rapeseed -9

Soybeans -1

Soybean oil +41

Crude +127

Corn -6

CAD -12

Canola Has Recovered Overnight…

Canola has recovered overnight after seeing a new calendar low and a new harvest low yesterday, pressured mainly by soybean oil, rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, carryover technical selling along and increased producer selling.  Chart weakness has spec/fund selling, with trend following funds selling another 2,000 contracts on Thursday, putting them net short an estimated 20,000 contracts or roughly 25% of the open interest

 

Russia fob wheat is near $315, German $347 and US SRW $365.

 

Grain volume is slowing into the end of the week but values are firmly higher, thanks to some outside market tailwinds and technical help

Putin is looking to throw a wrench into what were starting to become more free-flowing UKR grain exports

Taiwan’s MFIG passed on their international tender for 65k tonnes of corn.

Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with Turkey’s President Erdogan next week to discuss the Ukraine grain export deal, which both are criticizing.

Russian consultancy IKAR yesterday said the country has already broken their wheat harvest record of 86 MMT this season; the firm raised their 2022 Russian wheat estimate to 97 MMT, with an export potential of 46 MMT.

Brazilian crop supply agency Conab yesterday raised their 2021/22 soybean production estimate from 124.0 to 125.55 MMT, still down from 139.4 MMT in ‘20/21; total corn production fell from 114.7 to 113.3 MMT, still up from 87.1 MMT last season.  Wheat production for 2022 is seen at 9.4 MMT, up 22% year-over-year.  Conab raised their ‘21/22 soy export forecast from 75.2 to 77.2 MMT, with corn exports down from 37.5 to 37.0 MMT.

FranceAgriMer reported the French con harvest at 5% done, up from 1% last week and 0% last year, with ratings down from 45% to 43% g/ex this week.

The Rosario Exchange reported that Argentine farmers sold 3.1 MMT of soybeans from Monday to Wednesday, five times more than last week, due to the foreign exchange incentives announced.  Argentina’s central bank also said that soybean farmers holding over 5% of their crop would face elevated interest rates, in another move to make taking credit more expensive than selling soybeans.

 

Mpls wheat +12

KC wheat +13

Chic wheat +12

Matif wheat +2

Canola +3

Rapeseed -2

Soybeans +16

Soybean oil +86

Crude +249

Corn +4

CAD +41

Grains Are Lower On Precipitation In The Upper Midwest

One story yesterday that rain up the market was talk of shelling of the Ukrainian nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia, but seem like a big deal this morning

 

Grains are lower on precipitation in the Upper Midwest.

CONAB estimates Brazil’s 2021/22 total corn crop at 114.691 MMT compared to the previous forecast of 115.663 MMT and 87.097 in 2020/21.  The second corn crop is expected to be 87.407 MMT vs. 88.448 in the previous estimate and 60.742 last year.

The 2022 Brazil wheat crop is forecasted to be 9.161 MMT by CONAB.  The firm expects the ‘21/22 Brazil soybean crop to be 124.048 MMT, unchanged from the previous forecast but below 138.153 MMT last year.

FBN’s survey pegged the U.S. corn yield at 175.9 bu/acre and U.S. soybeans at 51.1 bu/ac.  The company’s model based forecast is at 170.0 bu/ac for corn and 50.7 bu/ac for soybeans.  Key findings in the corn yield report include expectations for Nebraska and Iowa yields to be significantly below the strong yields of last year.  Yield estimates were decreased for Missouri, North Dakota, and South Dakota.  The states with the best corn yield improvements were Ohio and Indiana.  Most states show a decrease in soybean yields compared to last year with the biggest declines seen in Missouri, Nebraska, and South Dakota.

Nine companies will purchase 20 million barrels of crude oil in the latest sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  The Biden Administration said it March it would release one million barrels of crude oil per day between May and October.

A ship is expected to arrive today in Ukraine to deliver 23 TMT of grain to Ethiopia.

 

Outlook for this year’s US spring wheat crop yield is up from previous forecast of 48.60 bu/acre, and has risen for a fourth consecutive time, according to data issued by Planalytics on Thursday.

Yield in key states versus previous Planalytics forecast (in bu/acre):

North Dakota 49.60 vs 49.40

Minnesota 61.40 vs 61.40

Montana 33.40 vs 33.00

 

Mpls wheat

KC wheat -9

Chic wheat -10

Matif wheat -7

Canola +1

Rapeseed -2

Soybeans -9

Soybean oil -51

Crude -174

Corn -2

CAD -16