US wheat futures enjoyed a strong session following the escalation over the weekend of attacks on a Russian oil tanker outside the Kerch Strait which has expanded the footprint of the war considerably.
Ukraine’s Chief of Intelligence told Bulgarian TV the grain corridor will resume Black Sea grain exports with or without Russia. This comes off the back of the comments from the Prime Minister regarding insurance.
Grains and the soy complex are lower this morning as condition ratings improved in yesterday’s crop condition report and favorable forecasts are ahead.
Russia’s Sovecon ag consultant firm estimates Russian wheat exports to total 48.1 MMT during the 2023/24 marketing year. This beats the previous record of 47.2 MMT. The firm estimates 2023/24 Russian wheat production to be 87.1 MMT, up from their previous estimate of 86.8 MMT.
IKAR in Russia raised its estimate of the Russian wheat crop to 88 MMT, up from 86.5 MMT. The firm expects Russia to export 137 MMT of grain up from 134.5 previously forecasted. Russian wheat exports are pegged at 47.5 MMT by IKAR, up 1.5 MMT from their previous forecast.
According to UkrAgroConsult, Ukraine exported 2.577 MMT of grains and pulses for the marketing year that started in July.
Thirteen people were injured in Turkey after a grain dust explosion at a port elevator. The explosion occurred at the Derince Port in Kocaeli.
AgRural expects Brazil’s total corn production this year to be 135.4 MMT. In July, the firm estimated the crop at 132.3 MMT. The company expects the second crop to be 105.6 MMT of the total estimate. In its first estimate of the year, AgRural pegged the second corn crop at 97.9 MMT. 64% of the second corn crop in Brazil is harvested according to AgRural. At this point last year, 80% of the crop was harvested.
93% of the U.S. corn crop is silked, 47% is in the dough stage, and 8% is dented. Corn condition good/excellent ratings improved 2% this week from 55% to 57% good/excellent. The crop is still below the five year average of 64% and last year at 58%.
90% of the soybean crop is bloomed and 66% is setting pods. U.S. soybean condition ratings improved 2% this week amid cooler temperatures and increased precipitation. The U.S. soybean crop is rated 54% good to excellent vs. 52% last week, 59% last year, and a 5 year average of 63%.
The U.S. spring wheat crop is 11% harvested. Conditions declined 1% week on week to 41% good to excellent.
Mpls wheat -3
KC wheat -3
Chic wheat -6
Matif wheat -1
Soybean oil -107