Canola market plunged yesterday following Monday’s negative movement in the Chicago soy complex and other veg oils when Canadian markets was closed.
Coming out of the August long weekend, canola prices lost approximately $45 per ton, despite above-average temperatures in Alberta
Decent weather conditions in Western Canada put pressure on the canola market as temperatures in Manitoba are not expected to exceed 30 degrees Celsius this week.
Crude oil was slightly higher on Tuesday as recession fears and uncertainty over this week’s OPEC+ meeting outweighed weakening demand.
Soybean oil was down, while European rapeseed was entirely higher and Malaysian palm oil was mostly higher.
Geopolitics pressure Ag markets lower
The first shipment through the Ukraine grain corridor as well as Pelosi’s arrival in Taipei (Taiwan) continued to pressure US ag markets lower overnight which saw CBOT(U) -25.50c at the close.
Marine insurers have advised there still needs to be procedures worked out for vessels and crews ensuring safe passage through the new export corridor which are yet to be resolved.
Russian wheat quality has taken a hit this season as untimely rains have put a dent in protein/gluten levels out of the world’s largest wheat exporter.
India is now looking likely to lower wheat import duties after a heavy front end export program precipitated a sharp rally in the price of local wheat. This would come after only months earlier talking of ‘feeding the world’.
In cash markets, Bulgarian 11.5 for Sep shipment was shown at $409/mt CFR SEA and APW was priced around $412/mt.
For an overall hot and dry summer, those scattered (and sometimes decent) rain chances continue this week as corn finishes up pollination and soybeans start to mature. That is keeping the bears hopeful that U.S. crops will find enough just-in-time rains to produce decent yields; exactly what happened last year; and keep S&D tables stocked adequately.
Taiwan’s MFIG bought 55k tonnes of South African feed corn in their international tender closing this morning, for Oct-Nov shipment; eight offers from South America were beat out, with no offers reported from the U.S.
Tunisia’s ODC has issued a tender for 100k MW for Aug-Oct shipment to be concluded today.
Iran’s GTC issued an international tender for 60k tonnes of milling wheat for Sept-Oct shipment, with a deadline set for today.
Jordan issued another international tender for 120k tonnes of optional origin milling wheat, closing August 9, for Jan-Feb shipment.
Algeria started buying optional origin milling wheat in an international tender yesterday, at $384/tonne C&F for Sept-Oct; they were believed to have wound up buying a total of 720k tonnes.
Jordan bought an estimated 60k tonnes of optional origin hard milling wheat yesterday at $404/tonne C&F, for early January shipment.
Brazilian exporting association Anec yesterday pegged August soybean exports at 5.101 MMT, down from 5.792 MMT last year, with corn exports seen at 6.221 MMT, up from 4.193 MMT last August. Meal exports of 1.639 MMT are seen outpacing 1.279 MMT for the same month in 2021.
European Union soft wheat exports hit 1.77 MMT over the month of July, up from 1.57 MMT last year, with corn imports at 1.62 MMT vs 1.23 MMT LY.
Russia’s Ag Ministry reported the country’s grain harvest at 51 MMT as of yesterday, including almost 44 MMT of wheat, with yields rising across the country; overall grain production is seen at 130 MMT in 2022.
Romania reported the country’s wheat harvest at 96% complete, saying the crop is large enough to cover domestic needs and ensure an export surplus.
StoneX yesterday estimated US corn yield at 176.0 bushels per acre, a bushel below the USDA July, with production (assuming the USDA acreage number) at 14.417 billion bushels, 88 mbu below the government. Soybean yields came in at 51.3 bpa, below the 51.5 bpa USDA July, with output there at 4.490 bln bu, 15 million bushels below the working USDA figure.
Mpls wheat +16
KC wheat +14
Chic wheat +14
Matif wheat +3
Soybean oil +139