Canola Has Recovered Overnight…

Canola has recovered overnight after seeing a new calendar low and a new harvest low yesterday, pressured mainly by soybean oil, rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil, carryover technical selling along and increased producer selling.  Chart weakness has spec/fund selling, with trend following funds selling another 2,000 contracts on Thursday, putting them net short an estimated 20,000 contracts or roughly 25% of the open interest

 

Russia fob wheat is near $315, German $347 and US SRW $365.

 

Grain volume is slowing into the end of the week but values are firmly higher, thanks to some outside market tailwinds and technical help

Putin is looking to throw a wrench into what were starting to become more free-flowing UKR grain exports

Taiwan’s MFIG passed on their international tender for 65k tonnes of corn.

Vladimir Putin is expected to meet with Turkey’s President Erdogan next week to discuss the Ukraine grain export deal, which both are criticizing.

Russian consultancy IKAR yesterday said the country has already broken their wheat harvest record of 86 MMT this season; the firm raised their 2022 Russian wheat estimate to 97 MMT, with an export potential of 46 MMT.

Brazilian crop supply agency Conab yesterday raised their 2021/22 soybean production estimate from 124.0 to 125.55 MMT, still down from 139.4 MMT in ‘20/21; total corn production fell from 114.7 to 113.3 MMT, still up from 87.1 MMT last season.  Wheat production for 2022 is seen at 9.4 MMT, up 22% year-over-year.  Conab raised their ‘21/22 soy export forecast from 75.2 to 77.2 MMT, with corn exports down from 37.5 to 37.0 MMT.

FranceAgriMer reported the French con harvest at 5% done, up from 1% last week and 0% last year, with ratings down from 45% to 43% g/ex this week.

The Rosario Exchange reported that Argentine farmers sold 3.1 MMT of soybeans from Monday to Wednesday, five times more than last week, due to the foreign exchange incentives announced.  Argentina’s central bank also said that soybean farmers holding over 5% of their crop would face elevated interest rates, in another move to make taking credit more expensive than selling soybeans.

 

Mpls wheat +12

KC wheat +13

Chic wheat +12

Matif wheat +2

Canola +3

Rapeseed -2

Soybeans +16

Soybean oil +86

Crude +249

Corn +4

CAD +41