All 3 US wheat futures contracts rallied around +30c yesterday as hot/dry weather is compounding already drought type conditions that are affecting around 50% of the winter wheat crop. Corn and soybeans were swept up in the rally as well due to below average rainfall forecast for the Midwest corn/soybean belt over the next 2 weeks, as well as unexpected demand.
With wheat planting underway in Argentina and already 30% complete, the Rosario Board of Trade revised its wheat average estimate 20% lower from May’s estimate to 5.6mln hectares.
Matif wheat futures did not follow US due to high stocks and better forecast.
Russia wheat export prices are USD 25-30 cents below French, 35-40 below Germany and 105 cents below US HRW on FOB basis.
Grains strength continues ahead of the weekend despite a good rain event on tap Sat/Sun
The market has long been hearing of an overall pattern shift but concrete precipitation events are still slow to arrive.
The soybean complex got a nice boost from yesterday’s NOPA crush, one of the few positive demand indicators as of late.
FranceAgriMer reported a third straight weekly decline in French soft wheat ratings, down from 88% to 85% good/excellent this week; that’s still above 65% at this point a year ago and the highest on record for this time of year back through at least 2011. Corn ratings fell two points, to 86% g/ex.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister said the country’s grain harvest could hit 130 MMT in 2023 “in the event of good weather”, above the Ag Ministry’s working 123 MMT estimate, but down from 158 MMT in 2022. Exports are seen reaching as high as 30 MMT in 2023/24 (July-June).
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) today announced plans to boost rural financing and aid the country’s ag industry, including strengthening infrastructure, the seed industry, and supporting banking and the loan industry.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry report the 2023 spring grain planting campaign as “almost complete” on 13 million hectares (32.1 mln acres); that includes 4 mln ha of corn, 5.3 mln ha of sunflowers, and 1.8 mln ha of soybeans. Cumulative grain exports with two weeks left in the 2022/23 marketing year stand at 47.5 MMT, down only slightly from 47.8 MMT at this point last year, and including 16.3 MMT of wheat and 28.2 MMT of corn.
Mpls wheat +12
KC wheat +18
Chic wheat +16
Matif wheat +5
Soybean oil +95