In The Absence Of Any Further News Or Escalation

In the absence of any further news or escalation overnight in the Black Sea, wheat futures were sold off with Chicago Sep losing -21.25c, Kansas -9.00c, MGEX -11.00c and Matif -€2.50/mt.

A growing story in the Black Sea is the quality problem with a growing portion of the wheat crops coming in as feed wheat, as evidenced by the growing spread between feed and milling wheat.  Russian FW FOB bids at $215 are a $20 to $25 discount to 12.5pro MW grade.

Ukraine is reporting record high wheat yields at 4.64mt/ha which is up 35% from last year.  Estimates are that the percentage of the crop that will be feed wheat is growing.

Australia exported 2.75MMT of wheat in the month of June, which was sharply down from 3.3MMT.


Traders are preparing for tomorrow’s USDA reports.

On Wednesday morning, the main Ukrainian port Izmail on the Danube was attacked by Russia.  Several buildings were destructed.  40 KMT of grain was damaged in the drone attack, and it disrupted grain exports.  President Zelenskiy said a long queue of ships destined for Izmail can be seen via ship tracking information.

Russian wheat is still the cheapest in the export market as seen in Egypt’s Tuesday purchase of 235 TMT of Russian wheat.

India will release up to 5 MMT of wheat from stocks in an attempt to control rising prices.

Rain continued to delay Germany’s wheat harvest bringing quality concerns.  Traders estimate 50% of the German wheat crop is harvested.

Refinitiv Commodities Research says key U.S. soybean areas are at near record highs for vegetation density levels.  These areas are in the central soybean belt and include Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.

Refinitiv also looked at flooding in Northeast China.  Northeast China has near or record high vegetation densities as well seen by satellite imagery.  The forecast in Northeast China is expected to be average during the next two weeks.  Heavy rain from the Typhoon Doksuri 1-2 weeks ago brought flood damage particularly in Hebei.

The Rosario exchange estimates Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean production at 48 MMT and corn production at 56 MMT.  If realized this would be 20 MMT greater than the soybean harvest in the previous marketing year and 22 MMT more than the corn harvest in 2022/23.

South Korea passed on all offers made for the purchase of a 140 TMT tender of feed corn.  The origins excluded Russia and Ukraine.  The lowest offer was $256.49/MT C&F for December delivery.

Algeria issued a crop tender to purchase 80 KMT of feed corn with Argentina as the origin.  Algeria is taking offers until August 10.

Jordan issues a tender purchase 120 KMT of milling wheat.  The deadline for offers is August 15.

Tunisia wants to buy 25 TMT of soft wheat.

Russia will supply free grain to six countries in Africa in the near future according to Russia’s Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev.


Mpls wheat +6

KC wheat +7

Chic wheat +3

Matif wheat -2

Canola +2

Rapeseed +3

Soybeans +9

Soybean oil -20

Crude -20

Corn +1

CAD +6