Wheat settles nearly unchanged yesterday despite increasing tensions
Wheat looked set for another double digits higher close overnight however settled close to unchanged despite tensions ratcheting up even further.
Ukraine in a tit for tat or quid pro quo response issued their own threat against any ships in the Black Sea calling Crimean or Russian ports which will be enforced from midnight tonight.
If insurers pull insurance like they have for any vessels calling Ukraine ports, this will be a blow to Russia’s own oil and wheat shipments.
The White House warned Russia is planning an attack on civilian vessels calling Ukraine ports by laying additional sea mines in the approach areas to Ukraine ports.
Overnight Russia stated they had no intention of targeting civilian vessels, describing the statements as “fabrication”.
Blah, blah, blah, cooler heads prevail this morning
Wheat futures are lower led by KC. Canada and US HRS crop areas remain dry. EU and Black Sea weather look mostly normal.
Russia continues to offer wheat for export below other exporters prices and $45 below French wheat.
There still remains talk that India my need to import wheat.
Grain volume was strong once again overnight, with gains brief and quickly wiped out as soybeans retreated from highs and December corn failed at the 100-day moving average.
Russia continued their attacks on grain terminals and infrastructure across Ukraine, despite officials holding out hope for a resumption of the Black Sea export deal.
U.S. corn and soybean crops are about to enter a rough stretch weather wise but there is some hope that more beneficial weather will return as we get into August.
Taiwan millers tendered for 108k tonnes of U.S. milling wheat this morning.
Officials at the Romanian port of Constanta said they have the capacity to handle more Ukrainian grain; they shipped 15.25 MMT of grain from Jan- June, up almost one quarter from last year, with UKR grain accounting for 7.5 MMT of that, compared to 8.6 MMT in the entirety of 2022.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported the country’s 2023 grain harvest at 5.9 MMT thus far, including 2.25 MMT of barley and 3.4 MMT of wheat.
FranceAgriMer reported the French soft wheat harvest at 58% complete this week, up from 33% a year ago, with 80% rated g/ex, unchanged vs last week.
French consultancy Agritel yesterday raised their 2023 Ukraine wheat production estimate from 16.34 to 18.9 MMT, still below 20.7 MMT in 2022 and the lowest output level since 2012/13.
The International Grains Council yesterday raised their 2023/24 world corn production estimate by nine million metric tonnes, to 1.22 billion tonnnes; U.S. output was up from 373 to 384 MMT (still more than 5 MMT below the USDA). World wheat output fell by 2 MMT this month to 784 MMT.
Mpls wheat -13
KC wheat -24
Chic wheat -22
Matif wheat -7
Soybean oil -17