Mixed day for global wheat futures
While the sell off in US was momentarily hit the pause button overnight Matif regained some lost ground up +€2.75/mt and back above €300/mt on the March contract, where the ASX was still trading the delay and ended the day down $10.50/mt on the Jan contract.
APW1 was reportedly traded into SEA CFR at a price sub USD360/mt for March shipment.
The US drought monitor is currently showing 64% of the winter wheat crop currently experiencing drought conditions.
There is a large consensus around the trade that Australia’s wheat production reaching as high as a record 42 MMT due to massive yields, up from the official 36.6 MMT projection from ABARES.. Export logistics however cap out at around 40mmt for all grains meaning wheat will need to fight it out with other grains for capacity.
The grains are pushing back against overall commodity head winds this morning but mostly in reaction to a rough week to start the year, recouping some fairly substantial losses so far in 2023. the recovery will be fighting against technical resistance, though, and a severe lack of fundamental help until the trade has the big USDA January report date to process.
The market is guessing traders will be expecting a bit of a rebound in corn and soybean yields/production/carry outs in next Thursday’s annual “final” publication.
Taiwan millers tendered for 45,200 tonnes of U.S. milling wheat this morning, of various types for March shipment.
Importers from the Philippines rejected all offers and made no purchase in their tender for 110k tonnes of feed wheat closing yesterday.
Tunisia yesterday morning bought 100k tonnes of soft wheat and 75k tonnes of feed barley, with the former’s lowest price (of four 25k-tonne lots) coming in at just under $382 per tonne cost plus freight.
China’s government said they will auction off 140k tonnes of wheat from state reserves on January 11, from the 2014 through 2017 harvests.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported the country’s 2022 grain harvest at 93% complete, or 49.5 million tonnes; corn stands at 81% done, or 22.1 MMT.
Mpls wheat +4
KC wheat +0
Chic wheat +5
Matif wheat -2
Canola +2
Rapeseed +0
Soybeans +12
Soybean oil +16
Crude +149
Corn +4
CAD +13