Global wheat futures traded higher again yesterday following Russia’s decision to suspend their involvement in the grain corridor prompting export supply concerns. The move since the announcement now totals 73.25c (USD27/mt).
2 Ukrainian/Turkish convoys have now left Odessa since the suspension was announced and sailed through Russia’s navy blockade. Putin has seemingly come back to the negotiating table now following a phone call with Erdogan demanding an investigation in to the attack on his fleet in Crimea and assurances/guarantees the humanitarian corridor would not be used for military purposes.
In cash markets, South Korea’s NOFI booked 63k US FW at USD396/mt for Nov/Dec shipment. Australia’s slots are too full and new crop too delayed to be competitive for that period. Iraq’s state grain buyer received the lowest offer in their tender from Romania at USD469/mt CFR although nothing reported as booked.
The grains were hit hard around 5 AM central time with Russia’s decision to resume participation in the grain export agreement, after dropping out over the weekend
The feed grains are still trading slightly above where they left off last Friday while soybeans are well above those levels
There remains some concern about Brazilian capabilities during protests there
Jordan issued another international tender for 120k tonnes of optional-origin milling wheat for March-April, after making no purchase yesterday.
Russia this morning announced it would rejoin the grain export deal after pulling out over the weekend, citing “sufficient safety guarantees” after talks with officials from Turkey and the United Nations. Departures from Ukraine and inspections at the Bosporus will resume today as before, instead of being halted for insurance issues as previously noted.
Argentina will reportedly soon allow wheat exporters to reschedule shipments without the normal 15 penalty, due to massive drought problems with the crop; producers have already formally declared export sales of 8.89 MMT for the 2022/23 wheat crop, with an existing export cap set at 10 MMT.
The main access road to the Brazilian port of Paranagua was blocked by protesters yesterday, following the election loss of current President Bolsonaro.
StoneX Brazil yesterday raised their 2022/23 soybean production estimate from 153.8 to 154.35 MMT, compared to 127.2 MMT last season; first-crop corn production fell from 29.25 to 28.6 MMT due to reduced planted acreage in Minas Gerais. StoneX’s initial second-crop output estimate came in at 99.1 MMT, up from 94.9 MMT in 2021/22 due to increased acreage year-over-year. Total corn output of 129.9 MMT would be up from 123.5 MMT LY. 2022/23 Brazilian soybean exports fell by 4 MMT this month to 96 MMT, still up from 77 MMT in ‘21/22, due to reduced Chinese demand.
Mpls wheat -35
KC wheat -44
Chic wheat -53
Matif wheat -16
Soybean oil +36