Monthly Archives: April 2022

The Indonesian flipflop continues

Indonesia has decided to expand its edible oil export ban to include crude palm oil and used cooking oil to ensure the measure can safeguard local supply.
The ban is set out in a rule issued on Wednesday, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said in a press briefing. Yesterday, he announced the export ban would only apply to refined, bleached and deodorized palm olein.

Mpls wheat making new highs yesterday as slow planting and cool/wet extended forecasts add risk premium to the market
Funds are record long Mpls wheat futures

The grains and oilseeds continue to ebb and flow but overall strength remains as soybeans and soybean oil take the lead this morning with the latter at record highs.
Extended maps are now stretching into the middle of May with out a real break in cold and wet Midwest weather
Safrinha corn dryness remains in Brazil; and feed grain concerns persist in war torn Ukraine
Algeria bought an estimated 230-250k tonnes of durum wheat in their tender closing yesterday, with Mexico likely the main origin; prices were thought to be in the $570-590/tonne range for shipment from late May through June.
Jordan has a 120k tonne wheat tender closing today but they only received one offer this time around; results are still pending.
Thailand is believed to have passed on their international tender for feed wheat, seeking shipment of up to one cargo each from June through October; their lowest offer came in in the low $380’s per tonne C&F for June.
China has stopped sales of wheat from state reserves, earlier than they sus-pended state auctions last year when stocks were higher.
Brazilian exporting association Anec is estimated April soybean exports at 12.09 MMT, up from 11.98 MMT seen previously; corn exports of 850k tonnes are unchanged from last week, with wheat steady at 156k tonnes.
The European Union crop monitor cut their 2022 soft wheat yield estimate from 6.02 to 5.95 tonnes per hectare (89.5 to 88.5 bushels per acre), now down 1.5% from last year.
European Commission data showed cumulative soft wheat exports at 21.61 MMT, down from 22.41 MMT over the same span in 2020/21. Corn imports through April 24 stand at 13.12 MMT, up from 12.68 MMT last season

Mpls wheat -8
KC wheat -9
Chic wheat -8
Matif wheat +1
Canola +11
Rapeseed -1
Soybeans +13
Soybean oil +272
Crude -145
Corn -1
CAD -22

Corn is stuck in place, while wheat remains strong

Corn is stuck in place with spot resistance at the $8/bushel mark, while wheat remains strong on real concern over spring seedings in the U.S.
Extended forecasts are worse to start this week, if anything. Planting windows are looking narrow after freezing lows today/tomorrow and cool/wet conditions into May.
Algeria has tendered for a nominal 50k tonnes of durum wheat.
Private analysts APK-Inform on Saturday raised their 2022/23 grain production estimate from 38.9 to 41.4 MMT, with wheat up from 14.9 to nearly 17.0 MMT (due to better winter yields), and corn unchanged at 18.5 MMT. They increased 2022/23 grain exports from 29.9 to 33.2 MMT as well (still below 45.5 MMT this season). Corn exports of 19.5 MMT would be down from 20.5 MMT LY, with wheat exports of 12.3 MMT down from 18.6 MMT in ‘21/22.
SovEcon estimated April Russian grain exports at 2.50 MMT, down from 2.65 MMT in March, with wheat at 2.1 MMT versus 2.2 MMT in March.
Tomorrow morning’s Statistics Canada planting intentions report is expected to show all wheat plantings at 24.15 million acres, up from 23.5 mln in 2021; canola acres are seen at 22.1 mln ac, down from 22.5 mln last year. Corn plantings of 3.4 mln ac would be down from 3.5 mln last season, with soybean acres of 5.5 mln ac marking a slight increase from 5.3 mln ac in 2021.
Soybean oil is leading a soy complex retreat this morning as Indonesia will only halt exports of bulk and packaged RBD palm olein, a higher value product that has been processed. Exports of crude palm oil and RBD palm oil will still be allowed, according to people familiar with the matter. This still remains fluid.

Mpls wheat +2
KC wheat +2
Chic wheat -1
Matif wheat +3
Canola -18
Rapeseed -12
Soybeans -22
Soybean oil -155
Crude -565
Corn -2
CAD -27

Tuesday’s trade gives back Monday’s gains

Tuesday’s trade gives back Monday’s gains
Tuesday’s trade late in the day gave back most of Monday’s gains to settle -21.50c lower on the May CBOT contract.
India’s first trade to Egypt has reportedly been made for May/June shipment through private channels after Indian origin wheat was approved for export to Egypt. FOB prices are currently around $340-350/mt.
Aussie FOB prices were mildly higher yesterday after the long weekend holiday with ASW reportedly at $385 ex WA, APW $405-410 and H2 +15 for Aug load.
Russia’s offensive in the Donbas region continues as they aim to take control of Eastern Ukraine, although in a boost to Ukraine, several countries have committed to supplying more military help and the West are looking at tightening sanctions on Russia even further.

Soybeans are fighting back this morning with a decent portion of the overnight trade volume and the spot May contract receiving a push back towards Feb-March continuous highs
Values for all major North America grains and oilseeds remain elevated as a disastrous spring continues.
Early corn and spring wheat seeding prospects are wiped out and the trade is looking for any seeding window. Temps are better into this weekend but multiple rounds of rains are expected, followed by a return to cold conditions again next week and beyond (below-normal temps now last into the first week of May). Farmers will have time to get the crops in in May, but the ideal start has gone by the wayside.
The war in Ukraine rages on, and speculative interest in the grains and commodities in general remains during these chaotic times.
Jordan again made no purchase in their tender for 120k tonnes of milling wheat this morning, despite receiving offers rom three trading companies this time around.
European Commission data showed cumulative soft wheat exports since July 1 at 21.26 MMT, down from 22.08 MMT through the same week last season. Corn imports of 12.77 MMT through 4/17 were up from 12.61 MMT last year.
Brazilian grain exporting association Anec estimated April soybean exports at 11.98 MMT, down from 12.02 MMT last week; corn exports of 850k tonnes were even with their prior estimate; soybean meal exports of 1.956 MMT were down from 2.070 MMT last week, while April wheat exports were pegged at 155k tonnes, down slightly from 156k tonnes estimated previously.

Mpls wheat +8
KC wheat +7
Chic wheat +1
Matif wheat +1
Canola +6
Rapeseed +7
Soybeans +10
Soybean oil +1
Crude +91
Corn +1
CAD +71

Just another normal day in the wheat market

Just another normal day in the wheat market Friday posting a +30 cent range. We needed a bit of a breather so we closed lower
Egypt has agreed to accept India as a source for wheat imports; the country was not previously on the list of importers, but India is looking for export 3 MMT to Egypt in 2022/23. Egypt imported 6.1 MMT of wheat in 2021.
A cargo of Indian wheat is unloading in Vietnam, always a phyto concern in Vietnam on unload inspection, containers into Vietnam are the preferred execution for that reason. Generally rejections are handled with a financial penalty, rather than turned away, still painful though

The grain markets opened the week strong again and have varied since the evening start, but the same onslaught of issues remain for bullish fundamental traders and eager speculators in the commodity space.
Chinese customs showed March corn imports at 2.41 MMT, up 25% from last March, with cumulative Jan-March imports up 5.5% YoY to 7.1 MMT. March wheat imports of 870k tonnes were almost double last year, with Jan- March imports of 3.05 MMT up just short of 5% from last season’s pace.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported that spring grain planting advanced 3% from April 11-14, to stand at two million hectares (4.9 mln acres), or just over 11% of the area projected to be planted. Corn planting rose from 1.3% to 2.2% done last week, with most sowing so far coming in lower cost crops. They also said around 1.25 MMT of grains and oilseeds are currently stuck on ships in the country’s seaports due to the war, and at risk of spoilage at some point.

Mpls wheat +27
KC wheat +20
Chic wheat +21
Matif wheat -3
Canola +10
Rapeseed +9
Soybeans +8
Soybean oil +70
Crude +140
Corn +9
CAD -10